Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-0 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 66% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SV Darmstadt 98 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SV Darmstadt 98 make the trip to BORUSSIA-PARK to face Borussia Mönchengladbach in Bundesliga (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Saturday 10 February 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Current Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SV Darmstadt 98 have collected 0.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 4D 6L. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
SV Darmstadt 98 away from home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Borussia Mönchengladbach's 1.10 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of SV Darmstadt 98's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 10 home games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 10 away games) — Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, SV Darmstadt 98 in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 0 for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 6.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 17 Sep 2023, ended Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–3 SV Darmstadt 98 — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 6.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Borussia Mönchengladbach — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
SV Darmstadt 98 — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Mönchengladbach 67% versus SV Darmstadt 98 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 72% | SV Darmstadt 98 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Borussia Mönchengladbach surrender their half-time lead 37% of the time, while SV Darmstadt 98 have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.52 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.085 / defence 1.055 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.884 / defence 1.359. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.239. SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating of 1.359 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Borussia Mönchengladbach's projected output up. Data: built from Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 54 games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 20.
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 66% | Draw 20% | SV Darmstadt 98 15%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.52 | Draw 5.12 | SV Darmstadt 98 6.87. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Mönchengladbach (66%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.67. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.67 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (2.52 / 1.16) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Mönchengladbach are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.67 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 10 home games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% (last 10 home games) | SV Darmstadt 98 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 21 | Venue: BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 10 February 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 66% | Draw 20% | SV Darmstadt 98 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% (Under 29%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.52 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.085 / def 1.055 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.884 / def 1.359 | league avg home 1.708 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.52
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.16
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
64%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SV Darmstadt 98 FAQs
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 10 February 2024 at BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 - 0 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 21) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 66% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and SV Darmstadt 98 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack rating (1.08) and SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 2.52 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SV Darmstadt 98's attack (0.88x) against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from Borussia Mönchengladbach's last 54 games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 20 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.3%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
66%
1.52
20%
5.12
15%
6.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.0%
Home win
3 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.52
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
3.67
1.16
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
1.52
66%
Home win
5.12
20%
Draw
6.87
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
8%
12.40
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
1%
85.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 6.4 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SV Darmstadt 98 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 2.52 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.16 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 3.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Borussia Mönchengladbach come into this having played 54 games, going 16W 16D 22L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, SV Darmstadt 98 sit at 1.44 PPG from 54 outings (22W 12D 20L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Borussia Mönchengladbach against 1.44 for SV Darmstadt 98. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home form reads 13W 5D 8L across their last 26 home games, a 1.69 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — Borussia Mönchengladbach are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, SV Darmstadt 98 have taken 1.31 points per game from their last 26 away games (10W 4D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.33 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach (Home) vs SV Darmstadt 98 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SV Darmstadt 98 Form FAQs
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 16W 16D 22L in their last 54 games (1.19 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 22W 12D 20L in their last 54 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.69 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and SV Darmstadt 98, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 10 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Borussia Mönchengladbach
2
Draws
0
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SV Darmstadt 98 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and SV Darmstadt 98?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 0, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 February 2024: Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-0 SV Darmstadt 98.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SV Darmstadt 98 see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 54%, SV Darmstadt 98 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 58% for SV Darmstadt 98. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Mönchengladbach keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; SV Darmstadt 98 in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SV Darmstadt 98 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Borussia Mönchengladbach and SV Darmstadt 98 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent matches and 50% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Borussia Mönchengladbach and SV Darmstadt 98 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 58% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and SV Darmstadt 98 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent matches and 58% of SV Darmstadt 98's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Borussia Mönchengladbach's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach and SV Darmstadt 98 finished level at 0-0 at BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.52 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.16 xG, a combined 3.67. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach fell 2.5 short of their projected output. SV Darmstadt 98 landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.08 / defence 1.05 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.88 / defence 1.36, drawn from 54/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 66% | Draw 20% | SV Darmstadt 98 15%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 72%, SV Darmstadt 98 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.19 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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