Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-6 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 14 as Borussia Mönchengladbach welcome SC Freiburg to Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 December 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Borussia Mönchengladbach — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Mönchengladbach at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Borussia Mönchengladbach are significantly better at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Borussia Mönchengladbach) versus 1.50 (SC Freiburg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Borussia Mönchengladbach register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, SC Freiburg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
SC Freiburg in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 68% and SC Freiburg 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 66% | SC Freiburg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.55 xG and SC Freiburg 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.046 / defence 0.784 | SC Freiburg attack 1.031 / defence 0.829. League average goals — home 1.784 / away 1.291. Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence rating of 0.784 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 47 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 46% | Draw 31% | SC Freiburg 23%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | SC Freiburg 4.35. Borussia Mönchengladbach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Borussia Mönchengladbach at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% | SC Freiburg 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 46% | Draw 31% | SC Freiburg 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.55 / SC Freiburg 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.046 / def 0.784 | SC Freiburg attack 1.031 / def 0.829 | league avg home 1.784 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.04
SC Freiburg xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 - 6 SC Freiburg.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 46% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. SC Freiburg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Borussia Mönchengladbach's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against SC Freiburg's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, SC Freiburg's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
46%
2.16
31%
3.22
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
2.59
1.04
SC Freiburg xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
16%
6.13
5%
20.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.1 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.04 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Borussia Mönchengladbach have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 18W 13D 16L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Freiburg's form line: 18W 13D 16L from 47 games, 1.43 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.43 PPG, SC Freiburg on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 1.83 PPG from 23 outings (12W 6D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Borussia Mönchengladbach are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, SC Freiburg have gone 7W 5D 11L from 23 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Mönchengladbach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.51 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 18W 13D 16L in their last 47 games (1.43 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 18W 13D 16L in their last 47 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or SC Freiburg away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.83 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2021, when SC Freiburg won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting SC Freiburg specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Borussia Mönchengladbach
5
Draws
5
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 0, SC Freiburg have won 5, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when SC Freiburg 2-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
SC Freiburg see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 70%, SC Freiburg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Borussia Mönchengladbach) and 61% (SC Freiburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play SC Freiburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 52% of SC Freiburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 61% of SC Freiburg's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SC Freiburg run riot with a 0-6 hammering of Borussia Mönchengladbach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-6 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.55 xG and SC Freiburg 1.04 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-6 for 6 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach fell 1.5 short of their projected output. SC Freiburg outscored their 1.04 projection by 5.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.05 / defence 0.78 against SC Freiburg attack 1.03 / defence 0.83, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 46% | Draw 31% | SC Freiburg 23%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a SC Freiburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 66%, SC Freiburg 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.43 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.