Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-0 RB Leipzig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RB Leipzig at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs RB Leipzig encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Borussia Mönchengladbach and RB Leipzig meet at Borussia-Park in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Friday 28 November 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Mönchengladbach at Borussia-Park this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
RB Leipzig have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for RB Leipzig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Leipzig's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. RB Leipzig are 1.40 PPG clear of Borussia Mönchengladbach in recent Bundesliga fixtures (2.50 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Borussia Mönchengladbach lead 3W to 3W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 1–0 with Borussia Mönchengladbach winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Borussia Mönchengladbach half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
RB Leipzig half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Mönchengladbach 58% versus RB Leipzig 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 62% | RB Leipzig 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.37 xG and RB Leipzig 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.868 / defence 1.268 | RB Leipzig attack 1.063 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.495. Data: 45 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 45 RB Leipzig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 26% | Draw 22% | RB Leipzig 52%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 3.85 | Draw 4.55 | RB Leipzig 1.92. RB Leipzig hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.37 / 2.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RB Leipzig at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RB Leipzig if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.39 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. This conflicts with form data: Borussia Mönchengladbach 40% | RB Leipzig 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Borussia-Park • Kick-off: Friday 28 Nov 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 26% | Draw 22% | RB Leipzig 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 65% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.37 / RB Leipzig 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.868 / def 1.268 | RB Leipzig attack 1.063 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.662 / away 1.495 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
2.01
RB Leipzig xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs RB Leipzig kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs RB Leipzig kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 28 November 2025 at Borussia-Park.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs RB Leipzig?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 - 0 RB Leipzig.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs RB Leipzig being played?
The match is being played at Borussia-Park.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs RB Leipzig part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs RB Leipzig is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 26% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 52% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and RB Leipzig will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and RB Leipzig?
Record (7 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 3W | Draws 1 | RB Leipzig 3W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and RB Leipzig in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. RB Leipzig (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack rating (0.87) and RB Leipzig's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — RB Leipzig's attack (1.06x) against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 2.01.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
26%
3.84
22%
4.64
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 2
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
3.39
2.01
RB Leipzig xG
3.84
26%
Home win
4.64
22%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
13%
7.49
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
3%
28.75
13%
7.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.4 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 2.01 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs RB Leipzig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 45 outings, Borussia Mönchengladbach have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 16W 9D 20L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RB Leipzig's form line: 21W 13D 11L from 45 games, 1.69 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for RB Leipzig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, RB Leipzig are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Borussia Mönchengladbach.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 1.26 PPG from 23 outings (8W 5D 10L).
On the road, RB Leipzig have gone 8W 7D 8L from 23 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 1.67 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: RB Leipzig in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
RB Leipzig
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 16W 9D 20L in their last 45 games (1.27 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 21W 13D 11L in their last 45 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or RB Leipzig away?
RB Leipzig's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.26 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Borussia Mönchengladbach or RB Leipzig been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, RB Leipzig in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
RB Leipzig have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Borussia Mönchengladbach won 3-0 on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against RB Leipzig — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
2
Draws
5
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and RB Leipzig?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, RB Leipzig have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and RB Leipzig last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when RB Leipzig 3-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and RB Leipzig?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 52%, RB Leipzig 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Borussia Mönchengladbach) and 48% (RB Leipzig).
On the defensive side: RB Leipzig in 48%; Borussia Mönchengladbach have failed to score in 30% of games; RB Leipzig in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play RB Leipzig?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent matches and 39% of RB Leipzig's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs RB Leipzig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent games and 48% of RB Leipzig's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and RB Leipzig tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, RB Leipzig in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Borussia Mönchengladbach's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach and RB Leipzig finished level at 0-0 at Borussia-Park, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.37 xG and RB Leipzig 2.01 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach fell 1.4 short of their projected output. RB Leipzig landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.87 / defence 1.27 against RB Leipzig attack 1.06 / defence 0.95, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 26% | Draw 22% | RB Leipzig 52%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 62%, RB Leipzig 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
RB Leipzig's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Leipzig arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.