Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-3 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Borussia Mönchengladbach host Bayer Leverkusen at BORUSSIA-PARK in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 August 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Borussia Mönchengladbach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record at BORUSSIA-PARK: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at BORUSSIA-PARK. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Borussia Mönchengladbach are significantly better at BORUSSIA-PARK than their overall form suggests.
Bayer Leverkusen — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Bayer Leverkusen have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bayer Leverkusen's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.30 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour Bayer Leverkusen, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bayer Leverkusen have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Bayer Leverkusen in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% versus Bayer Leverkusen 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 63% | Bayer Leverkusen 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.60 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.956 / defence 0.876 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.951 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.909 / away 1.399. Data: 35 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 35 Bayer Leverkusen games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 47% | Draw 26% | Bayer Leverkusen 27%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Bayer Leverkusen 3.70. Borussia Mönchengladbach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Mönchengladbach are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Borussia Mönchengladbach 40% | Bayer Leverkusen 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Aug 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 47% | Draw 26% | Bayer Leverkusen 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.60 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.956 / def 0.876 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.951 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.909 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Bayer Leverkusen xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 26 August 2023 at BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 - 3 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 47% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (4 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W | Draws 1 | Bayer Leverkusen 3W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack rating (0.96) and Bayer Leverkusen's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bayer Leverkusen's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
47%
2.13
26%
3.87
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
2.77
1.17
Bayer Leverkusen xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
20%
4.96
Win to Nil
15%
6.83
5%
18.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.7 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.17 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Borussia Mönchengladbach come into this having played 35 games, going 11W 11D 13L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bayer Leverkusen sit at 1.51 PPG from 35 outings (15W 8D 12L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.26 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home form reads 10W 3D 4L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — Borussia Mönchengladbach are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bayer Leverkusen have taken 1.35 points per game from 17 outings (6W 5D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Mönchengladbach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 1.71 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Early Season
Bayer Leverkusen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 11W 11D 13L in their last 35 games (1.26 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 15W 8D 12L in their last 35 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.94 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2021, when Bayer Leverkusen won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting Bayer Leverkusen specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Borussia Mönchengladbach
4
Draws
6
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 0, Bayer Leverkusen have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 47%, Bayer Leverkusen 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Borussia Mönchengladbach) and 59% (Bayer Leverkusen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Mönchengladbach keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Bayer Leverkusen in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play Bayer Leverkusen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent matches and 47% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 59% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bayer Leverkusen run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Borussia Mönchengladbach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-3 at BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 2, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.60 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.17 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Bayer Leverkusen outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.96 / defence 0.88 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.95 / defence 0.88, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 47% | Draw 26% | Bayer Leverkusen 27%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Bayer Leverkusen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 63%, Bayer Leverkusen 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.26 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bayer Leverkusen win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.