Borussia Dortmund 1-2 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Dortmund at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Borussia Dortmund host VfB Stuttgart at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 February 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Dortmund stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Dortmund's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Borussia Dortmund are significantly better at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfB Stuttgart have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, VfB Stuttgart have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. VfB Stuttgart are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Borussia Dortmund have won 3, VfB Stuttgart 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2024, ended 1–5 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Borussia Dortmund trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Dortmund 68% and VfB Stuttgart 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Borussia Dortmund 65% | VfB Stuttgart 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 1.84 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.163 / defence 1.006 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.953 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.400. Data: 54 Borussia Dortmund games / 54 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 49% | Draw 23% | VfB Stuttgart 28%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 2.04 | Draw 4.35 | VfB Stuttgart 3.57. Borussia Dortmund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form VfB Stuttgart (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Dortmund 80% | VfB Stuttgart 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: SIGNAL IDUNA PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Feb 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 49% | Draw 23% | VfB Stuttgart 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Borussia Dortmund 1.84 / VfB Stuttgart 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.163 / def 1.006 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.953 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
1.34
VfB Stuttgart xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 8 February 2025 at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart?
Borussia Dortmund 1 - 2 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 49% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (7 meetings): Borussia Dortmund 3W | Draws 1 | VfB Stuttgart 3W.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Borussia Dortmund's attack rating (1.16) and VfB Stuttgart's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfB Stuttgart's attack versus Borussia Dortmund's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
49%
2.04
23%
4.33
28%
3.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
3.18
1.34
VfB Stuttgart xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
3.58
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
13%
7.82
4%
22.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.3 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.34 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Borussia Dortmund's recent record stands at 26W 14D 14L from 54 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfB Stuttgart, meanwhile, have gone 32W 9D 13L across 54 games — 1.94 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Dortmund on 1.70 PPG, VfB Stuttgart on 1.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Borussia Dortmund have managed 15W 6D 5L from 26 games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VfB Stuttgart's away record stands at 13W 4D 9L across 26 trips, a 1.65 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 2.13 scored and 1.28 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 26W 14D 14L in their last 54 games (1.70 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 32W 9D 13L in their last 54 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 1.96 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2022, when Borussia Dortmund won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Dortmund's record when hosting VfB Stuttgart specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Borussia Dortmund
2
Draws
4
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 4, VfB Stuttgart have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 0-2 Borussia Dortmund.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 69%, VfB Stuttgart 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Borussia Dortmund and 69% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Borussia Dortmund's games and 54% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 69% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as VfB Stuttgart defy the odds to beat Borussia Dortmund 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfB Stuttgart beat Borussia Dortmund 1-2 at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 1.84 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.34 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.16 / defence 1.01 against VfB Stuttgart attack 0.95 / defence 0.89, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 49% | Draw 23% | VfB Stuttgart 28%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual VfB Stuttgart win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 65%, VfB Stuttgart 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Dortmund 1.70 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.31 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.