Borussia Dortmund 4-2 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 5 as Borussia Dortmund welcome Union Berlin to Signal-Iduna-Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 September 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Dortmund have gone 9W 0D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.70 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Borussia Dortmund have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Borussia Dortmund at Signal-Iduna-Park this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union Berlin stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Union Berlin have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Union Berlin's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Borussia Dortmund are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.70 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 91% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Union Berlin in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Dortmund 68% and Union Berlin 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 76% | Union Berlin 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 2.49 xG and Union Berlin 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.453 / defence 1.080 | Union Berlin attack 0.989 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.270. Borussia Dortmund carry an above-average attack strength of 1.453 — their λ of 2.49 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 38 Borussia Dortmund games / 38 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 60% | Draw 23% | Union Berlin 17%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Union Berlin 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.84. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.84 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.49 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Dortmund 70% | Union Berlin 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Signal-Iduna-Park • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Sep 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 60% | Draw 23% | Union Berlin 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 70% | xG Borussia Dortmund 2.49 / Union Berlin 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.453 / def 1.080 | Union Berlin attack 0.989 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.701 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.49
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Union Berlin xG
70%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 19 September 2021 at Signal-Iduna-Park.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin?
Borussia Dortmund 4 - 2 Union Berlin.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Signal-Iduna-Park.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 60% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Union Berlin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and Union Berlin in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Union Berlin (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Borussia Dortmund's attack at 1.45x the league average against Union Berlin's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 2.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union Berlin's attack versus Borussia Dortmund's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.2%), 3-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
60%
1.67
23%
4.42
17%
5.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.5%
Home win
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.49
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
3.84
1.36
Union Berlin xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
5.76
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.36
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
8%
12.04
Win to Nil
15%
6.47
1%
69.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 2.49 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.36 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 3.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Borussia Dortmund come into this having played 38 games, going 23W 4D 11L for 1.92 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Union Berlin sit at 1.47 PPG from 38 outings (13W 17D 8L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Union Berlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Borussia Dortmund's home form reads 12W 2D 4L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Union Berlin have taken 1.06 points per game from 18 outings (4W 7D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Berlin's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.32 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.45 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Union Berlin in 68%.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Early Season
Union Berlin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 23W 4D 11L in their last 38 games (1.92 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 13W 17D 8L in their last 38 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or Union Berlin away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.11 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Borussia Dortmund and Union Berlin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Borussia Dortmund have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Feb 2025, when Borussia Dortmund won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Dortmund's record when hosting Union Berlin specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Borussia Dortmund
0
Draws
2
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 8, Union Berlin have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Union Berlin 0-3 Borussia Dortmund.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and Union Berlin?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 67%, Union Berlin 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Borussia Dortmund and 44% for Union Berlin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Union Berlin in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play Union Berlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Borussia Dortmund's games and 61% of Union Berlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 44% of Union Berlin's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and Union Berlin tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Dortmund cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Union Berlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat Union Berlin 4-2 at Signal-Iduna-Park, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 2.49 xG and Union Berlin 1.36 xG, a combined 3.84. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.45 / defence 1.08 against Union Berlin attack 0.99 / defence 1.01, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 60% | Draw 23% | Union Berlin 17%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 76%, Union Berlin 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Union Berlin's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.47. Form held, and they took the win. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.50 average — above their attacking norm. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.