Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Dortmund at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 30 as Borussia Dortmund welcome Union Berlin to Signal-Iduna-Park. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 21 April 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Dortmund have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Borussia Dortmund at Signal-Iduna-Park this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union Berlin stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Union Berlin's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Borussia Dortmund 1.70 PPG, Union Berlin 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 90% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Union Berlin in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Dortmund 66% and Union Berlin 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 76% | Union Berlin 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 1.78 xG and Union Berlin 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.273 / defence 1.138 | Union Berlin attack 0.775 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.286. Borussia Dortmund carry an above-average attack strength of 1.273 — their λ of 1.78 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 29 Borussia Dortmund games / 29 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 51% | Draw 26% | Union Berlin 23%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Union Berlin 4.35. Borussia Dortmund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Dortmund 70% | Union Berlin 50% BTTS from recent games.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Signal-Iduna-Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 21 Apr 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 51% | Draw 26% | Union Berlin 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Borussia Dortmund 1.78 / Union Berlin 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.273 / def 1.138 | Union Berlin attack 0.775 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Union Berlin xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 21 April 2021 at Signal-Iduna-Park.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin?
Borussia Dortmund 2 - 0 Union Berlin.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Signal-Iduna-Park.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 51% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Union Berlin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and Union Berlin in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Borussia Dortmund's attack at 1.27x the league average against Union Berlin's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union Berlin's attack versus Borussia Dortmund's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
51%
1.95
26%
3.87
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
2.92
1.13
Union Berlin xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
17%
5.94
Win to Nil
17%
6.06
4%
25.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.9 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.13 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Borussia Dortmund come into this having played 29 games, going 15W 4D 10L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Union Berlin sit at 1.48 PPG from 29 outings (10W 13D 6L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Dortmund on 1.69 PPG, Union Berlin on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Borussia Dortmund's home form reads 8W 2D 4L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Union Berlin have taken 1.21 points per game from 14 outings (4W 5D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.14 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.52 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Union Berlin in 69%.
Last 29 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Current Season
Union Berlin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 15W 4D 10L in their last 29 games (1.69 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 10W 13D 6L in their last 29 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or Union Berlin away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 1.86 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Borussia Dortmund or Union Berlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Union Berlin in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Borussia Dortmund and Union Berlin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Borussia Dortmund have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Feb 2025, when Borussia Dortmund won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Dortmund's record when hosting Union Berlin specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Borussia Dortmund
0
Draws
2
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 8, Union Berlin have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Union Berlin 0-3 Borussia Dortmund.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and Union Berlin?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Union Berlin see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 57%, Union Berlin 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Borussia Dortmund and 43% for Union Berlin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play Union Berlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Borussia Dortmund's games and 64% of Union Berlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 43% of Union Berlin's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and Union Berlin tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Dortmund cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Union Berlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat Union Berlin 2-0 at Signal-Iduna-Park, Regular Season - 30, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 1.78 xG and Union Berlin 1.13 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Union Berlin landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.27 / defence 1.14 against Union Berlin attack 0.78 / defence 1.13, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 51% | Draw 26% | Union Berlin 23%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 76%, Union Berlin 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Union Berlin's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Dortmund 1.69 PPG, Union Berlin 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Dortmund win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.