Borussia Dortmund 4-3 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Dortmund at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Borussia Dortmund host FC Augsburg at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 January 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Borussia Dortmund — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Dortmund at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Borussia Dortmund are significantly better at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Augsburg have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Borussia Dortmund 1.30 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Borussia Dortmund, 0 for FC Augsburg and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Dortmund 65% and FC Augsburg 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 71% | FC Augsburg 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 2.13 xG and FC Augsburg 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.093 / defence 0.875 | FC Augsburg attack 1.081 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 2.023 / away 1.241. Data: 49 Borussia Dortmund games / 49 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 59% | Draw 21% | FC Augsburg 20%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.69 | Draw 4.76 | FC Augsburg 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (59%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.13 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.30 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Borussia Dortmund 50% | FC Augsburg 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: SIGNAL IDUNA PARK • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Jan 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 59% | Draw 21% | FC Augsburg 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 61% | xG Borussia Dortmund 2.13 / FC Augsburg 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.093 / def 0.875 | FC Augsburg attack 1.081 / def 0.961 | league avg home 2.023 / away 1.241 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
1.17
FC Augsburg xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 22 January 2023 at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg?
Borussia Dortmund 4 - 3 FC Augsburg.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 59% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg?
Record (2 meetings): Borussia Dortmund 1W | Draws 1 | FC Augsburg 0W.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Borussia Dortmund's attack rating (1.09) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 2.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus Borussia Dortmund's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
59%
1.70
21%
4.67
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
3.30
1.17
FC Augsburg xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
12%
8.38
Win to Nil
18%
5.51
2%
42.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.17 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Borussia Dortmund come into this having played 49 games, going 30W 4D 15L for 1.92 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.08 PPG from 49 outings (14W 11D 24L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.84 PPG clear of FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Borussia Dortmund's home form reads 18W 1D 5L across 24 games on their own ground, a 2.29 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 0.96 points per game from 24 outings (6W 5D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.24 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.16 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 30W 4D 15L in their last 49 games (1.92 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 14W 11D 24L in their last 49 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or FC Augsburg away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.29 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Borussia Dortmund go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2024, when Borussia Dortmund won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Dortmund's record when hosting FC Augsburg specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Borussia Dortmund
2
Draws
2
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 6, FC Augsburg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 2-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 62%, FC Augsburg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Borussia Dortmund and 54% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; FC Augsburg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Borussia Dortmund's games and 50% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 54% of FC Augsburg's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Borussia Dortmund edge out FC Augsburg 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat FC Augsburg 4-3 at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 2.13 xG and FC Augsburg 1.17 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Augsburg outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.09 / defence 0.88 against FC Augsburg attack 1.08 / defence 0.96, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 59% | Draw 21% | FC Augsburg 20%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 71%, FC Augsburg 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.79 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.