Borussia Dortmund 2-1 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Borussia Dortmund host FC Augsburg at Signal-Iduna-Park in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 October 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Borussia Dortmund — All Games: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Borussia Dortmund have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Borussia Dortmund at Signal-Iduna-Park this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Augsburg have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Augsburg's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Borussia Dortmund are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 1.60 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
Borussia Dortmund in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 91% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Dortmund 68% versus FC Augsburg 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 75% | FC Augsburg 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 2.41 xG and FC Augsburg 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.529 / defence 1.162 | FC Augsburg attack 0.679 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.747 / away 1.172. Borussia Dortmund carry an above-average attack strength of 1.529 — their λ of 2.41 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 40 Borussia Dortmund games / 40 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 68% | Draw 22% | FC Augsburg 10%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.47 | Draw 4.55 | FC Augsburg 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (68%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Borussia Dortmund 70% | FC Augsburg 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Signal-Iduna-Park • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 68% | Draw 22% | FC Augsburg 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 57% | xG Borussia Dortmund 2.41 / FC Augsburg 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.529 / def 1.162 | FC Augsburg attack 0.679 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.747 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.41
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
0.92
FC Augsburg xG
57%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Signal-Iduna-Park.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg?
Borussia Dortmund 2 - 1 FC Augsburg.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Signal-Iduna-Park.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 68% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 10% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Borussia Dortmund's attack rating (1.53) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 2.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Augsburg's attack versus Borussia Dortmund's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
68%
1.47
22%
4.63
10%
9.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.41
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
3.33
0.92
FC Augsburg xG
1.47
68%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
9.62
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
9%
11.15
Win to Nil
27%
3.71
1%
107.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.6 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.3 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.41 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 0.92 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Borussia Dortmund come into this having played 40 games, going 24W 4D 12L for 1.90 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.02 PPG from 40 outings (11W 8D 21L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.88 PPG clear of FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Borussia Dortmund's home form reads 14W 2D 4L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.20 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 0.80 points per game from 20 outings (4W 4D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.30 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 0.95 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Early Season
FC Augsburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 24W 4D 12L in their last 40 games (1.90 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 11W 8D 21L in their last 40 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or FC Augsburg away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.20 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Borussia Dortmund go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2024, when Borussia Dortmund won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Dortmund's record when hosting FC Augsburg specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Borussia Dortmund
2
Draws
2
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 6, FC Augsburg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 2-0 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 65%, FC Augsburg 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Borussia Dortmund and 45% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; FC Augsburg in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Borussia Dortmund's games and 45% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 45% of FC Augsburg's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Borussia Dortmund edge out FC Augsburg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat FC Augsburg 2-1 at Signal-Iduna-Park, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 2.41 xG and FC Augsburg 0.92 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.53 / defence 1.16 against FC Augsburg attack 0.68 / defence 0.90, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 68% | Draw 22% | FC Augsburg 10%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 75%, FC Augsburg 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.