Borussia Dortmund 1-1 1899 Hoffenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 64% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Dortmund vs 1899 Hoffenheim encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
1899 Hoffenheim make the trip to SIGNAL IDUNA PARK to face Borussia Dortmund in Bundesliga (matchday 14). The match kicks off on Sunday 15 December 2024 at 16:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Borussia Dortmund have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, Borussia Dortmund have posted 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Borussia Dortmund are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
1899 Hoffenheim (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
1899 Hoffenheim's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Borussia Dortmund against 1.00 for 1899 Hoffenheim. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Borussia Dortmund's last 10 home games and 1899 Hoffenheim's last 10 away games) — Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, 1899 Hoffenheim in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Borussia Dortmund have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins, with 1899 Hoffenheim managing 1 and 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 25 Feb 2024, ended Borussia Dortmund 2–3 1899 Hoffenheim — a 1899 Hoffenheim win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Borussia Dortmund and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.2 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading
Borussia Dortmund half-time and goal-timing data (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
1899 Hoffenheim half-time and goal-timing data (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Dortmund 66% and 1899 Hoffenheim 81% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Borussia Dortmund 64% | 1899 Hoffenheim 72%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Borussia Dortmund surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while 1899 Hoffenheim have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that 1899 Hoffenheim surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Borussia Dortmund recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 2.02 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.360 / defence 0.778 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.676 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.648 / away 1.495. Borussia Dortmund carry an above-average attack rating of 1.360 — their 2.02 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. 1899 Hoffenheim's attack rating of 0.676 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.79. Borussia Dortmund have a tight defence (rating 0.778), which is pulling 1899 Hoffenheim's projected output down. Data: built from Borussia Dortmund's last 47 games and 1899 Hoffenheim's last 47.
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 64% | Draw 25% | 1899 Hoffenheim 11%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.56 | Draw 4.03 | 1899 Hoffenheim 8.84. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (64%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Borussia Dortmund at 64% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Borussia Dortmund 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Borussia Dortmund's last 10 home games and 1899 Hoffenheim's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Borussia Dortmund 70% (last 10 home games) | 1899 Hoffenheim 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs 1899 Hoffenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 14 | Venue: SIGNAL IDUNA PARK • Kick-off: Sunday 15 December 2024 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 64% | Draw 25% | 1899 Hoffenheim 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Borussia Dortmund 2.02 / 1899 Hoffenheim 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.360 / def 0.778 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.676 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.648 / away 1.495 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
0.79
1899 Hoffenheim xG
50%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Borussia Dortmund vs 1899 Hoffenheim FAQs
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs 1899 Hoffenheim kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 15 December 2024 at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Borussia Dortmund 1 - 1 1899 Hoffenheim.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs 1899 Hoffenheim being played?
The match is being played at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs 1899 Hoffenheim part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs 1899 Hoffenheim is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 14) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 64% chance of winning, 1899 Hoffenheim a 11% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and 1899 Hoffenheim will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Borussia Dortmund vs 1899 Hoffenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Borussia Dortmund's attack at 1.36x the league average against 1899 Hoffenheim's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 2.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — 1899 Hoffenheim's attack (0.68x) against Borussia Dortmund's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from Borussia Dortmund's last 47 games and 1899 Hoffenheim's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 1-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
64%
1.56
25%
4.03
11%
8.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
2.81
0.79
1899 Hoffenheim xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
8.84
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
46%
2.20
13%
7.55
Win to Nil
29%
3.44
1%
66.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Borussia Dortmund vs 1899 Hoffenheim Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and 1899 Hoffenheim expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 0.79 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 47 outings, Borussia Dortmund have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 24W 12D 11L record — W-L-W-D-D across the most recent five.
1899 Hoffenheim's form line: 16W 11D 20L from 47 games, 1.26 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Borussia Dortmund are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against 1899 Hoffenheim.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Borussia Dortmund have posted 2.13 PPG from their last 23 home games (15W 4D 4L).
On the road, 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 7W 5D 11L from their last 23 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; 1899 Hoffenheim are on 1.79 scored and 1.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; 1899 Hoffenheim in 81%.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
Borussia Dortmund (Home) vs 1899 Hoffenheim (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
❓ Borussia Dortmund vs 1899 Hoffenheim Form FAQs
What form are Borussia Dortmund and 1899 Hoffenheim in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 24W 12D 11L in their last 47 games (1.79 PPG), while 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 16W 11D 20L in their last 47 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or 1899 Hoffenheim away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.13 PPG; 1899 Hoffenheim away: 1.13 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Borussia Dortmund and 1899 Hoffenheim, the earliest from January 2022. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Borussia Dortmund have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against 1899 Hoffenheim — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Borussia Dortmund
1
Draws
2
1899 Hoffenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Borussia Dortmund vs 1899 Hoffenheim H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and 1899 Hoffenheim?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Borussia Dortmund have won 7, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and 1899 Hoffenheim last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: 1899 Hoffenheim 2-3 Borussia Dortmund.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and 1899 Hoffenheim?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for Borussia Dortmund, 74% for 1899 Hoffenheim — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Borussia Dortmund and 74% for 1899 Hoffenheim. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / 1899 Hoffenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Borussia Dortmund vs 1899 Hoffenheim Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Borussia Dortmund and 1899 Hoffenheim matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Borussia Dortmund's games and 74% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Borussia Dortmund and 1899 Hoffenheim matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 74% of 1899 Hoffenheim's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and 1899 Hoffenheim matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Borussia Dortmund's recent matches and 87% of 1899 Hoffenheim's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Dortmund and 1899 Hoffenheim share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund and 1899 Hoffenheim finished level at 1-1 at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 2.02 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 0.79 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.36 / defence 0.78 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.68 / defence 0.90, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 64% | Draw 25% | 1899 Hoffenheim 11%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 64%, 1899 Hoffenheim 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.39 scoring average — below par going forward. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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