Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bayer Leverkusen vs Hertha BSC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 28 as Bayer Leverkusen welcome Hertha BSC to BayArena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 April 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayer Leverkusen's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at BayArena this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hertha BSC — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Hertha BSC have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Bayer Leverkusen carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Bayer Leverkusen, 1 for Hertha BSC and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Bayer Leverkusen in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Hertha BSC in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bayer Leverkusen 64% versus Hertha BSC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bayer Leverkusen 62% | Hertha BSC 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayer Leverkusen 2.66 xG and Hertha BSC 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.282 / defence 1.088 | Hertha BSC attack 0.647 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.682 / away 1.299. Bayer Leverkusen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.282 — their λ of 2.66 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Hertha BSC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing Bayer Leverkusen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 Bayer Leverkusen games / 61 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 74% | Draw 16% | Hertha BSC 10%. Fair-value odds: Bayer Leverkusen 1.35 | Draw 6.25 | Hertha BSC 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Bayer Leverkusen (74%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayer Leverkusen at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.57 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Bayer Leverkusen 60% | Hertha BSC 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayer Leverkusen vs Hertha BSC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: BayArena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 74% | Draw 16% | Hertha BSC 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 56% | xG Bayer Leverkusen 2.66 / Hertha BSC 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.282 / def 1.088 | Hertha BSC attack 0.647 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.682 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.66
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Hertha BSC xG
56%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayer Leverkusen vs Hertha BSC kick off?
Bayer Leverkusen vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at BayArena.
What was the final score in Bayer Leverkusen vs Hertha BSC?
Bayer Leverkusen 2 - 1 Hertha BSC.
Where is Bayer Leverkusen vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at BayArena.
What competition is Bayer Leverkusen vs Hertha BSC part of?
Bayer Leverkusen vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayer Leverkusen vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 74% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 10% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and Hertha BSC?
Record (3 meetings): Bayer Leverkusen 0W | Draws 2 | Hertha BSC 1W.
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and Hertha BSC in?
Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Hertha BSC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bayer Leverkusen's attack rating (1.28) and Hertha BSC's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 2.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus Bayer Leverkusen's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 3-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
74%
1.35
16%
6.29
10%
9.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
3 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.66
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Total xG
3.57
0.92
Hertha BSC xG
1.35
74%
Home win
6.29
16%
Draw
9.90
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
7%
14.28
Win to Nil
30%
3.37
1%
141.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.5 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Bayer Leverkusen and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 2.66 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 0.92 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayer Leverkusen vs Hertha BSC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 61 outings, Bayer Leverkusen have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 28W 16D 17L record — L-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hertha BSC's form line: 15W 16D 30L from 61 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bayer Leverkusen are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hertha BSC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 1.73 PPG from 30 outings (15W 7D 8L).
On the road, Hertha BSC have gone 5W 8D 17L from 30 away games — 0.77 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bayer Leverkusen are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.15 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
Bayer Leverkusen have gone 28W 16D 17L in their last 61 games (1.64 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 15W 16D 30L in their last 61 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayer Leverkusen at home or Hertha BSC away?
Bayer Leverkusen's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayer Leverkusen at home: 1.73 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Mar 2021, when Hertha BSC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bayer Leverkusen's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Bayer Leverkusen
3
Draws
1
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, Bayer Leverkusen have won 2, Hertha BSC have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bayer Leverkusen and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2023, when Bayer Leverkusen 4-1 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Bayer Leverkusen and Hertha BSC?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bayer Leverkusen 70%, Hertha BSC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Bayer Leverkusen and 57% for Hertha BSC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayer Leverkusen home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayer Leverkusen play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Bayer Leverkusen's games and 53% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bayer Leverkusen vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Bayer Leverkusen's matches and 57% of Hertha BSC's.
Do Bayer Leverkusen and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
Bayer Leverkusen have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bayer Leverkusen edge out Hertha BSC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat Hertha BSC 2-1 at BayArena, Regular Season - 28, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 2.66 xG and Hertha BSC 0.92 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.28 / defence 1.09 against Hertha BSC attack 0.65 / defence 1.23, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 74% | Draw 16% | Hertha BSC 10%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 74%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 62%, Hertha BSC 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.