1899 Hoffenheim 1-3 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1899 Hoffenheim at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1899 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1899 Hoffenheim host Union Berlin at PreZero Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 2 November 2020 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
1899 Hoffenheim — All Games: 2W 1D 2L from 5 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. 1899 Hoffenheim have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union Berlin stand at 1W 3D 1L from 5 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Union Berlin have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (1899 Hoffenheim) versus 1.20 (Union Berlin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
1899 Hoffenheim in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
Union Berlin in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1899 Hoffenheim 80% and Union Berlin 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1899 Hoffenheim 60% | Union Berlin 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1899 Hoffenheim 1.43 xG and Union Berlin 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.049 / defence 1.056 | Union Berlin attack 0.798 / defence 1.094. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 1.345. Data: 5 1899 Hoffenheim games / 5 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 40% | Draw 34% | Union Berlin 26%. Fair-value odds: 1899 Hoffenheim 2.50 | Draw 2.94 | Union Berlin 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1899 Hoffenheim at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1899 Hoffenheim offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1899 Hoffenheim 80% | Union Berlin 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1899 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: PreZero Arena • Kick-off: Monday 2 Nov 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 40% | Draw 34% | Union Berlin 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 55% | xG 1899 Hoffenheim 1.43 / Union Berlin 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.049 / def 1.056 | Union Berlin attack 0.798 / def 1.094 | league avg home 1.243 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: 1899 Hoffenheim (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Union Berlin xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1899 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin kick off?
1899 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 2 November 2020 at PreZero Arena.
What was the final score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin?
1899 Hoffenheim 1 - 3 Union Berlin.
Where is 1899 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at PreZero Arena.
What competition is 1899 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin part of?
1899 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1899 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives 1899 Hoffenheim a 40% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 26% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making 1899 Hoffenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both 1899 Hoffenheim and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and Union Berlin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and Union Berlin in?
1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Union Berlin (all comps): 1W-3D-1L in 5 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates 1899 Hoffenheim's attack at 1.05x the league average against Union Berlin's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union Berlin's attack versus 1899 Hoffenheim's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1899 Hoffenheim Win
40%
2.50
34%
2.96
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Total xG
2.56
1.13
Union Berlin xG
2.50
40%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
13%
7.76
6%
15.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.5 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1899 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are 1899 Hoffenheim and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.13 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for 1899 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 5 outings, 1899 Hoffenheim have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 2W 1D 2L record — W-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Union Berlin's form line: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Union Berlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1899 Hoffenheim on 1.40 PPG, Union Berlin on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
1899 Hoffenheim are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Union Berlin in 80%.
Last 5 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1899 Hoffenheim
Early Season
Union Berlin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
1899 Hoffenheim have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 games (1.40 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 1W 3D 1L in their last 5 (1.20 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
1899 Hoffenheim go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Feb 2025, when Union Berlin won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1899 Hoffenheim's record when hosting Union Berlin specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
1899 Hoffenheim
1
Draws
5
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 4, Union Berlin have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1899 Hoffenheim and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim 3-1 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between 1899 Hoffenheim and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — 1899 Hoffenheim at 80%, Union Berlin at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (1899 Hoffenheim) and 40% (Union Berlin).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1899 Hoffenheim home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1899 Hoffenheim play Union Berlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of 1899 Hoffenheim's games and 80% of Union Berlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1899 Hoffenheim vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of 1899 Hoffenheim's recent games and 40% of Union Berlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1899 Hoffenheim and Union Berlin tend to score early?
1899 Hoffenheim have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over 1899 Hoffenheim.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat 1899 Hoffenheim 1-3 at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 1.43 xG and Union Berlin 1.13 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Union Berlin outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.05 / defence 1.06 against Union Berlin attack 0.80 / defence 1.09, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 40% | Draw 34% | Union Berlin 26%, with 1899 Hoffenheim to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Union Berlin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 60%, Union Berlin 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 80%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Union Berlin's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1899 Hoffenheim 1.40 PPG, Union Berlin 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. 1899 Hoffenheim managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Union Berlin scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.