1899 Hoffenheim 1-2 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1899 Hoffenheim at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees SC Freiburg travel to PreZero Arena to take on 1899 Hoffenheim. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 August 2023, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1899 Hoffenheim stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. 1899 Hoffenheim haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1899 Hoffenheim have posted 4W 1D 5L at PreZero Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SC Freiburg — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. SC Freiburg haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
SC Freiburg's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: 1899 Hoffenheim 1.70 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. 1899 Hoffenheim register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, SC Freiburg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for 1899 Hoffenheim, 2 for SC Freiburg and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2023, ended 1–2 with SC Freiburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
1899 Hoffenheim in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
SC Freiburg in-play tendencies (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1899 Hoffenheim 68% versus SC Freiburg 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1899 Hoffenheim 62% | SC Freiburg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1899 Hoffenheim 1.93 xG and SC Freiburg 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.032 / defence 1.080 | SC Freiburg attack 0.982 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.843 / away 1.357. Data: 34 1899 Hoffenheim games / 34 SC Freiburg games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 47% | Draw 26% | SC Freiburg 27%. Fair-value odds: 1899 Hoffenheim 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | SC Freiburg 3.70. 1899 Hoffenheim hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1899 Hoffenheim are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1899 Hoffenheim offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.37 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: 1899 Hoffenheim 80% | SC Freiburg 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: PreZero Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Aug 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1899 Hoffenheim 47% | Draw 26% | SC Freiburg 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 67% | xG 1899 Hoffenheim 1.93 / SC Freiburg 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.032 / def 1.080 | SC Freiburg attack 0.982 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.843 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: 1899 Hoffenheim (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.44
SC Freiburg xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg kick off?
1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 19 August 2023 at PreZero Arena.
What was the final score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg?
1899 Hoffenheim 1 - 2 SC Freiburg.
Where is 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at PreZero Arena.
What competition is 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg part of?
1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives 1899 Hoffenheim a 47% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making 1899 Hoffenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg?
Record (4 meetings): 1899 Hoffenheim 1W | Draws 1 | SC Freiburg 2W.
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. 1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from 1899 Hoffenheim's attack rating (1.03) and SC Freiburg's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SC Freiburg's attack versus 1899 Hoffenheim's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1899 Hoffenheim Win
47%
2.11
26%
3.92
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
1899 Hoffenheim xG
Total xG
3.37
1.44
SC Freiburg xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
15%
6.90
Win to Nil
11%
8.90
4%
25.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 9.6 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for 1899 Hoffenheim and 1.44 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 34 outings, 1899 Hoffenheim have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 10W 6D 18L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. 1899 Hoffenheim haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
SC Freiburg's form line: 17W 8D 9L from 34 games, 1.74 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L. SC Freiburg haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, SC Freiburg are the form team by 0.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against 1899 Hoffenheim.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, 1899 Hoffenheim have posted 1.35 PPG from 17 outings (7W 2D 8L).
On the road, SC Freiburg have gone 7W 4D 6L from 17 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
1899 Hoffenheim are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.50 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1899 Hoffenheim have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: SC Freiburg in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1899 Hoffenheim
Pre-Season
SC Freiburg
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
1899 Hoffenheim have gone 10W 6D 18L in their last 34 games (1.06 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 17W 8D 9L in their last 34 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1899 Hoffenheim at home or SC Freiburg away?
SC Freiburg's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1899 Hoffenheim at home: 1.35 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.47 PPG.
Have 1899 Hoffenheim or SC Freiburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
1899 Hoffenheim have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, SC Freiburg in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Feb 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1899 Hoffenheim's record when hosting SC Freiburg specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
1899 Hoffenheim
3
Draws
5
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 2, SC Freiburg have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when 1899 Hoffenheim 3-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
SC Freiburg see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1899 Hoffenheim 71%, SC Freiburg 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for 1899 Hoffenheim and 59% for SC Freiburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1899 Hoffenheim home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1899 Hoffenheim play SC Freiburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of 1899 Hoffenheim's games and 47% of SC Freiburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of 1899 Hoffenheim's matches and 59% of SC Freiburg's.
Do 1899 Hoffenheim and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
1899 Hoffenheim have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SC Freiburg defy the odds to beat 1899 Hoffenheim 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg beat 1899 Hoffenheim 1-2 at PreZero Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1899 Hoffenheim 1.93 xG and SC Freiburg 1.44 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. 1899 Hoffenheim fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.03 / defence 1.08 against SC Freiburg attack 0.98 / defence 1.01, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1899 Hoffenheim 47% | Draw 26% | SC Freiburg 27%, with 1899 Hoffenheim to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual SC Freiburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1899 Hoffenheim 62%, SC Freiburg 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Freiburg arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.