1. FC Köln 2-1 VfL Bochum – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Köln at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Köln vs VfL Bochum fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1. FC Köln and VfL Bochum meet at RheinEnergieStadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 August 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
1. FC Köln's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. 1. FC Köln have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1. FC Köln have posted 4W 2D 4L at RheinEnergieStadion — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
VfL Bochum have collected 1.50 PPG across 2 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 0D 1L. Last five: L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. VfL Bochum have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for 1. FC Köln against 1.50 for VfL Bochum. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.89 xG and VfL Bochum 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 1.032 / defence 1.097 | VfL Bochum attack 0.718 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.795 / away 1.171. Data: 36 1. FC Köln games / 2 VfL Bochum games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 57% | Draw 27% | VfL Bochum 15%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 1.75 | Draw 3.70 | VfL Bochum 6.67. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Köln (57%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Köln are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs VfL Bochum | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: RheinEnergieStadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 57% | Draw 27% | VfL Bochum 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG 1. FC Köln 1.89 / VfL Bochum 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 1.032 / def 1.097 | VfL Bochum attack 0.718 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.795 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Köln (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
0.92
VfL Bochum xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs VfL Bochum kick off?
1. FC Köln vs VfL Bochum kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at RheinEnergieStadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs VfL Bochum?
1. FC Köln 2 - 1 VfL Bochum.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs VfL Bochum being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieStadion.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs VfL Bochum part of?
1. FC Köln vs VfL Bochum is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs VfL Bochum?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 57% chance of winning, VfL Bochum a 15% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Köln the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs VfL Bochum?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both 1. FC Köln and VfL Bochum will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs VfL Bochum have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and VfL Bochum?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Köln and VfL Bochum in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. VfL Bochum (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates 1. FC Köln's attack at 1.03x the league average against VfL Bochum's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — VfL Bochum's attack (0.72x) against 1. FC Köln's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
The sample (36/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Köln Win
57%
1.74
27%
3.64
15%
6.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
2.81
0.92
VfL Bochum xG
1.74
57%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
6.59
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
15%
6.63
Win to Nil
23%
4.39
2%
43.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 10.5 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs VfL Bochum?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and VfL Bochum expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 0.92 for VfL Bochum, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs VfL Bochum?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 2 outings, 1. FC Köln have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 1W 0D 1L record — W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
VfL Bochum's form line: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-W. It's still early in the season for VfL Bochum, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for 1. FC Köln against 1.50 for VfL Bochum. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
1. FC Köln are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; VfL Bochum are on 1.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. 1. FC Köln's scoring rate against VfL Bochum's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Köln have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; VfL Bochum in 0%.
Defensively: VfL Bochum in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Early Season
VfL Bochum
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and VfL Bochum in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while VfL Bochum have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have 1. FC Köln or VfL Bochum been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Köln have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, VfL Bochum in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Köln have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against VfL Bochum — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
1. FC Köln
3
Draws
1
VfL Bochum
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and VfL Bochum?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 2, VfL Bochum have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and VfL Bochum last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when 1. FC Köln 2-1 VfL Bochum.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and VfL Bochum?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / VfL Bochum away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play VfL Bochum?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of 1. FC Köln's recent matches and 0% of VfL Bochum's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Köln vs VfL Bochum usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of 1. FC Köln's recent games and 0% of VfL Bochum's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Köln and VfL Bochum tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, VfL Bochum in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Köln edge out VfL Bochum 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Köln beat VfL Bochum 2-1 at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 1.89 xG and VfL Bochum 0.92 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 1.03 / defence 1.10 against VfL Bochum attack 0.72 / defence 1.02, drawn from 36/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 57% | Draw 27% | VfL Bochum 15%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 100%, VfL Bochum 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Köln 1.50 PPG, VfL Bochum 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Köln win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Köln conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. VfL Bochum shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.