1. FC Köln 0-2 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates 1. FC Köln at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Köln vs SV Darmstadt 98 encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

1. FC Köln host SV Darmstadt 98 at Cologne Stadium in Bundesliga (matchday 30). Kick-off is Saturday 20 April 2024 at 15:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, 1. FC Köln stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

1. FC Köln at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

SV Darmstadt 98 — last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

SV Darmstadt 98 away from home: 0W 5D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.

1. FC Köln are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for 1. FC Köln, 0 for SV Darmstadt 98 and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 1 Dec 2023, ended 1. FC Köln 1–0 SV Darmstadt 98 — a 1. FC Köln win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

1. FC Köln in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

SV Darmstadt 98 in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Köln 56% versus SV Darmstadt 98 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 43% | SV Darmstadt 98 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 1.50 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 0.699 / defence 1.160 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.721 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 1.669 / away 1.367. 1. FC Köln's attack rating of 0.699 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.50. SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating of 1.283 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing 1. FC Köln's projected output up. SV Darmstadt 98's attack rating of 0.721 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.14. Data: built from 1. FC Köln's last 63 games and SV Darmstadt 98's last 29.

Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 44% | Draw 29% | SV Darmstadt 98 27%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 2.29 | Draw 3.45 | SV Darmstadt 98 3.66. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates 1. FC Köln as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Köln offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: 1. FC Köln 40% (last 10 home games) | SV Darmstadt 98 50% (last 10 away games).

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