1. FC Köln 0-2 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Köln at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg meet at RheinEnergieStadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Friday 10 December 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
1. FC Köln have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: L D D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Köln at RheinEnergieStadion this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — 1. FC Köln are significantly better at RheinEnergieStadion than their overall form suggests.
FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for 1. FC Köln, 1.10 for FC Augsburg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: 1. FC Köln 1W, FC Augsburg 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2021, ended 3–2 with 1. FC Köln winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
1. FC Köln half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
FC Augsburg half-time and goal-timing data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Köln 67% and FC Augsburg 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Köln 58% | FC Augsburg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Köln 2.09 xG and FC Augsburg 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Köln attack 1.155 / defence 1.045 | FC Augsburg attack 0.701 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.344. Data: 48 1. FC Köln games / 48 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 61% | Draw 24% | FC Augsburg 15%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Köln 1.64 | Draw 4.17 | FC Augsburg 6.67. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Köln (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Köln at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Köln 80% | FC Augsburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: RheinEnergieStadion • Kick-off: Friday 10 Dec 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Köln 61% | Draw 24% | FC Augsburg 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 57% | xG 1. FC Köln 2.09 / FC Augsburg 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Köln attack 1.155 / def 1.045 | FC Augsburg attack 0.701 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Köln (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
1. FC Köln xG
Expected Goals
0.98
FC Augsburg xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg kick off?
1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 10 December 2021 at RheinEnergieStadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg?
1. FC Köln 0 - 2 FC Augsburg.
Where is 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at RheinEnergieStadion.
What competition is 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg part of?
1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Köln a 61% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 15% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Köln the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both 1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg?
Record (2 meetings): 1. FC Köln 1W | Draws 0 | FC Augsburg 1W.
What form are 1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg in?
1. FC Köln (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from 1. FC Köln's attack rating (1.16) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 2.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (0.70x) against 1. FC Köln's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Köln Win
61%
1.64
24%
4.12
15%
6.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
1. FC Köln xG
Total xG
3.08
0.98
FC Augsburg xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
6.71
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
12%
8.09
Win to Nil
23%
4.40
2%
54.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are 1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for 1. FC Köln and 0.98 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, 1. FC Köln have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 13W 16D 19L record — L-D-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Augsburg's form line: 13W 10D 25L from 48 games, 1.02 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for 1. FC Köln against 1.02 for FC Augsburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, 1. FC Köln have posted 1.21 PPG from 24 outings (7W 8D 9L).
On the road, FC Augsburg have gone 4W 5D 15L from 24 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Köln come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Köln are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.04 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Köln have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Köln
Blended
FC Augsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
1. FC Köln have gone 13W 16D 19L in their last 48 games (1.15 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 13W 10D 25L in their last 48 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Köln at home or FC Augsburg away?
1. FC Köln's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Köln at home: 1.21 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Köln won 1-4 on 30 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Köln have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
1. FC Köln
3
Draws
3
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, 1. FC Köln have won 4, FC Augsburg have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-0 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Köln see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Köln 75%, FC Augsburg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (1. FC Köln) and 46% (FC Augsburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Köln home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Köln play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of 1. FC Köln's games and 50% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Köln vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of 1. FC Köln's matches and 46% of FC Augsburg's.
Do 1. FC Köln and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
1. FC Köln have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Augsburg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over 1. FC Köln.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat 1. FC Köln 0-2 at RheinEnergieStadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Köln 2.09 xG and FC Augsburg 0.98 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. 1. FC Köln fell 2.1 short of their projected output. FC Augsburg outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Köln attack 1.16 / defence 1.04 against FC Augsburg attack 0.70 / defence 1.02, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Köln 61% | Draw 24% | FC Augsburg 15%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a FC Augsburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Köln 58%, FC Augsburg 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Köln's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Köln 1.15 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Augsburg win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.