Werder Bremen 1-1 Hannover 96 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hannover 96 at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Werder Bremen vs Hannover 96 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hannover 96 make the trip to wohninvest WESERSTADION to face Werder Bremen in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 July 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Werder Bremen (all games): 0W 1D 9L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Werder Bremen haven't played a 2. Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Werder Bremen at wohninvest WESERSTADION this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — Werder Bremen are significantly better at wohninvest WESERSTADION than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Werder Bremen 0.69 xG and Hannover 96 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Werder Bremen attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Hannover 96 attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.705 / away 1.590. Data: 0 Werder Bremen games / 0 Hannover 96 games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Werder Bremen 13% | Draw 32% | Hannover 96 55%. Fair-value odds: Werder Bremen 7.69 | Draw 3.12 | Hannover 96 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Hannover 96 (55%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hannover 96 are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 32% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Werder Bremen vs Hannover 96 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: wohninvest WESERSTADION • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jul 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Werder Bremen 13% | Draw 32% | Hannover 96 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Werder Bremen 0.69 / Hannover 96 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Werder Bremen attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Hannover 96 attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.705 / away 1.590 • Poisson stance: Hannover 96 (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
Werder Bremen xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Hannover 96 xG
43%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Werder Bremen vs Hannover 96 kick off?
Werder Bremen vs Hannover 96 kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 24 July 2021 at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What was the final score in Werder Bremen vs Hannover 96?
Werder Bremen 1 - 1 Hannover 96.
Where is Werder Bremen vs Hannover 96 being played?
The match is being played at wohninvest WESERSTADION.
What competition is Werder Bremen vs Hannover 96 part of?
Werder Bremen vs Hannover 96 is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Werder Bremen vs Hannover 96?
Our statistical model gives Werder Bremen a 13% chance of winning, Hannover 96 a 55% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Hannover 96 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs Hannover 96?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Werder Bremen and Hannover 96 will score (BTTS).
Will Werder Bremen vs Hannover 96 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Hannover 96?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Werder Bremen and Hannover 96 in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Werder Bremen (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Werder Bremen's attack at 0.85x the league average against Hannover 96's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hannover 96's attack (0.85x) against Werder Bremen's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.8%), 0-2 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hannover 96 Win
13%
7.69
32%
3.10
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.8%
Away win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
Werder Bremen xG
Total xG
2.24
1.55
Hannover 96 xG
7.69
13%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
50%
1.99
Win to Nil
3%
36.40
28%
3.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 16.5 | 12.8 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.4 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Werder Bremen vs Hannover 96?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Werder Bremen and Hannover 96 expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Werder Bremen and 1.55 for Hannover 96, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Werder Bremen vs Hannover 96?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Werder Bremen
Pre-Season
Hannover 96
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Werder Bremen
1
Draws
0
Hannover 96
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Werder Bremen and Hannover 96?
From 2 meetings on record, Werder Bremen have won 1, Hannover 96 have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Werder Bremen and Hannover 96 last play each other?
They last met on 19 December 2021, when Hannover 96 1-4 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between Werder Bremen and Hannover 96?
Werder Bremen have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Werder Bremen home games / Hannover 96 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Werder Bremen and Hannover 96 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at wohninvest WESERSTADION, Regular Season - 1, as Werder Bremen and Hannover 96 drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Werder Bremen 0.69 xG and Hannover 96 1.55 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Werder Bremen attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Hannover 96 attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Werder Bremen 13% | Draw 32% | Hannover 96 55%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.