SV Sandhausen 0-4 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SV Darmstadt 98 (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SV Sandhausen face SV Darmstadt 98.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SV Darmstadt 98 make the trip to BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald to face SV Sandhausen in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Friday 3 February 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SV Sandhausen have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SV Sandhausen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald, SV Sandhausen have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SV Darmstadt 98's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98 away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, SV Darmstadt 98 are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — SV Sandhausen register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, SV Darmstadt 98 in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SV Sandhausen lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jul 2022, ended 1–2 with SV Darmstadt 98 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
SV Sandhausen half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
SV Darmstadt 98 half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Sandhausen 65% and SV Darmstadt 98 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Sandhausen 54% | SV Darmstadt 98 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Sandhausen 1.34 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Sandhausen attack 1.035 / defence 1.136 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.038 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.315. Data: 52 SV Sandhausen games / 52 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Sandhausen 33% | Draw 25% | SV Darmstadt 98 42%. Fair-value odds: SV Sandhausen 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | SV Darmstadt 98 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SV Sandhausen 70% | SV Darmstadt 98 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Sandhausen vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald • Kick-off: Friday 3 Feb 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Sandhausen 33% | Draw 25% | SV Darmstadt 98 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG SV Sandhausen 1.34 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: SV Sandhausen attack 1.035 / def 1.136 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.038 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
SV Sandhausen xG
Expected Goals
1.55
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Sandhausen vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
SV Sandhausen vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 3 February 2023 at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald.
What was the final score in SV Sandhausen vs SV Darmstadt 98?
SV Sandhausen 0 - 4 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is SV Sandhausen vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald.
What competition is SV Sandhausen vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
SV Sandhausen vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Sandhausen vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives SV Sandhausen a 33% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Sandhausen vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both SV Sandhausen and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will SV Sandhausen vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Sandhausen and SV Darmstadt 98?
Record (3 meetings): SV Sandhausen 0W | Draws 1 | SV Darmstadt 98 2W.
What form are SV Sandhausen and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
SV Sandhausen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SV Sandhausen's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against SV Darmstadt 98's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — SV Darmstadt 98's attack (1.04x) against SV Sandhausen's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
33%
3.04
25%
4.05
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
SV Sandhausen xG
Total xG
2.89
1.55
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
3.04
33%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
7%
14.32
11%
8.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.6 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.7 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Sandhausen vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are SV Sandhausen and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for SV Sandhausen and 1.55 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Sandhausen vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SV Sandhausen's recent record stands at 15W 15D 22L from 52 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for SV Sandhausen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Darmstadt 98, meanwhile, have gone 29W 12D 11L across 52 games — 1.90 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SV Darmstadt 98 by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SV Sandhausen heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, SV Sandhausen have managed 7W 7D 11L from 25 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SV Darmstadt 98's away record stands at 13W 5D 7L across 25 trips, a 1.76 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SV Sandhausen are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 1.92 scored and 1.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Sandhausen have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Sandhausen
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Sandhausen and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
SV Sandhausen have gone 15W 15D 22L in their last 52 games (1.15 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 29W 12D 11L in their last 52 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Sandhausen at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
SV Darmstadt 98's away record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Sandhausen at home: 1.12 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 1.76 PPG.
Have SV Sandhausen or SV Darmstadt 98 been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Sandhausen have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, SV Darmstadt 98 in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: SV Darmstadt 98 have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SV Darmstadt 98 won 1-6 on 3 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Sandhausen have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against SV Darmstadt 98 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
SV Sandhausen
1
Draws
3
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Sandhausen and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 4 meetings on record, SV Sandhausen have won 0, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Sandhausen and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2023, when SV Sandhausen 0-4 SV Darmstadt 98.
Who has won more matches between SV Sandhausen and SV Darmstadt 98?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SV Sandhausen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Sandhausen 64%, SV Darmstadt 98 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (SV Sandhausen) and 60% (SV Darmstadt 98). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Sandhausen home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Sandhausen play SV Darmstadt 98?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of SV Sandhausen's games and 64% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Sandhausen vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of SV Sandhausen's matches and 60% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do SV Sandhausen and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
SV Sandhausen have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SV Darmstadt 98 run riot with a 0-4 hammering of SV Sandhausen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat SV Sandhausen 0-4 at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald, Regular Season - 19, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Sandhausen 1.34 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.55 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. SV Sandhausen fell 1.3 short of their projected output. SV Darmstadt 98 outscored their 1.55 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Sandhausen attack 1.03 / defence 1.14 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.04 / defence 0.90, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Sandhausen 33% | Draw 25% | SV Darmstadt 98 42%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Sandhausen 54%, SV Darmstadt 98 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Sandhausen's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SV Sandhausen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.