SV Sandhausen 1-2 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hansa Rostock at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Sandhausen vs Hansa Rostock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SV Sandhausen and Hansa Rostock meet at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Friday 12 May 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SV Sandhausen have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SV Sandhausen's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Hansa Rostock's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Hansa Rostock's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for SV Sandhausen, 1.00 for Hansa Rostock — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: SV Sandhausen 1W, Hansa Rostock 1W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2022, ended 1–0 with SV Sandhausen winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
SV Sandhausen — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Hansa Rostock — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Sandhausen 63% versus Hansa Rostock 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Sandhausen 57% | Hansa Rostock 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Sandhausen 1.14 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Sandhausen attack 0.780 / defence 1.459 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.693 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.568 / away 1.303. SV Sandhausen's attack strength of 0.780 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 65 SV Sandhausen games / 65 Hansa Rostock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Sandhausen 32% | Draw 27% | Hansa Rostock 41%. Fair-value odds: SV Sandhausen 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Hansa Rostock 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hansa Rostock at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hansa Rostock if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: SV Sandhausen 50% | Hansa Rostock 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Sandhausen vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald • Kick-off: Friday 12 May 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Sandhausen 32% | Draw 27% | Hansa Rostock 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG SV Sandhausen 1.14 / Hansa Rostock 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: SV Sandhausen attack 0.780 / def 1.459 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.693 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.568 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Hansa Rostock (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
SV Sandhausen xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Hansa Rostock xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Sandhausen vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
SV Sandhausen vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 12 May 2023 at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald.
What was the final score in SV Sandhausen vs Hansa Rostock?
SV Sandhausen 1 - 2 Hansa Rostock.
Where is SV Sandhausen vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald.
What competition is SV Sandhausen vs Hansa Rostock part of?
SV Sandhausen vs Hansa Rostock is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Sandhausen vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives SV Sandhausen a 32% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hansa Rostock the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Sandhausen vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both SV Sandhausen and Hansa Rostock will score (BTTS).
Will SV Sandhausen vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Sandhausen and Hansa Rostock?
Record (3 meetings): SV Sandhausen 1W | Draws 1 | Hansa Rostock 1W.
What form are SV Sandhausen and Hansa Rostock in?
SV Sandhausen (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Hansa Rostock (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SV Sandhausen's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Hansa Rostock's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. Flip it around — Hansa Rostock's attack (0.69x) against SV Sandhausen's defence (1.46x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hansa Rostock Win
32%
3.12
27%
3.68
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
SV Sandhausen xG
Total xG
2.45
1.32
Hansa Rostock xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
32%
3.11
Win to Nil
9%
11.65
13%
7.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.3 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Sandhausen vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are SV Sandhausen and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for SV Sandhausen and 1.32 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Sandhausen vs Hansa Rostock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 65 outings, SV Sandhausen have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 17W 18D 30L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Hansa Rostock's form line: 20W 15D 30L from 65 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for SV Sandhausen against 1.15 for Hansa Rostock. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SV Sandhausen have posted 1.03 PPG from 32 outings (8W 9D 15L).
On the road, Hansa Rostock have gone 11W 9D 12L from 32 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SV Sandhausen are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 1.06 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Sandhausen have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 65 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Sandhausen
Current Season
Hansa Rostock
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Sandhausen and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
SV Sandhausen have gone 17W 18D 30L in their last 65 games (1.06 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 20W 15D 30L in their last 65 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Sandhausen at home or Hansa Rostock away?
Hansa Rostock's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Sandhausen at home: 1.03 PPG; Hansa Rostock away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Sandhausen have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hansa Rostock — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
SV Sandhausen
1
Draws
2
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Sandhausen and Hansa Rostock?
From 4 meetings on record, SV Sandhausen have won 1, Hansa Rostock have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Sandhausen and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2023, when SV Sandhausen 1-2 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between SV Sandhausen and Hansa Rostock?
Hansa Rostock have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SV Sandhausen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Sandhausen 59%, Hansa Rostock 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (SV Sandhausen) and 50% (Hansa Rostock).
On the defensive side: SV Sandhausen have failed to score in 31% of games; Hansa Rostock in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Sandhausen home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Sandhausen play Hansa Rostock?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of SV Sandhausen's recent matches and 38% of Hansa Rostock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Sandhausen vs Hansa Rostock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of SV Sandhausen's recent games and 50% of Hansa Rostock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Sandhausen and Hansa Rostock tend to score early?
SV Sandhausen have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Hansa Rostock in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hansa Rostock edge out SV Sandhausen 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hansa Rostock beat SV Sandhausen 1-2 at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald, Regular Season - 32, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Sandhausen 1.14 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.32 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Sandhausen attack 0.78 / defence 1.46 against Hansa Rostock attack 0.69 / defence 0.93, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Sandhausen 32% | Draw 27% | Hansa Rostock 41%, with Hansa Rostock to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Sandhausen 57%, Hansa Rostock 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Sandhausen's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Sandhausen 1.06 PPG, Hansa Rostock 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hansa Rostock win broke the near-deadlock. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.