SV Sandhausen 1-1 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Hamburger SV at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Sandhausen vs Hamburger SV encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SV Sandhausen and Hamburger SV meet at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 February 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
SV Sandhausen's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for SV Sandhausen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Sandhausen's home record at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald: 1W 3D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald this season.
Hamburger SV have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hamburger SV have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Hamburger SV are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for SV Sandhausen, 1 for Hamburger SV and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Hamburger SV winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
SV Sandhausen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Hamburger SV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Sandhausen 54% and Hamburger SV 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Sandhausen 54% | Hamburger SV 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Sandhausen 0.82 xG and Hamburger SV 1.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Sandhausen attack 0.782 / defence 1.312 | Hamburger SV attack 1.027 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.155 / away 1.463. SV Sandhausen's attack strength of 0.782 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 SV Sandhausen games / 22 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Sandhausen 13% | Draw 25% | Hamburger SV 62%. Fair-value odds: SV Sandhausen 7.69 | Draw 4.00 | Hamburger SV 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Hamburger SV (62%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hamburger SV as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: SV Sandhausen 50% | Hamburger SV 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Sandhausen vs Hamburger SV | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Sandhausen 13% | Draw 25% | Hamburger SV 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 50% | xG SV Sandhausen 0.82 / Hamburger SV 1.97 • Poisson strength factors: SV Sandhausen attack 0.782 / def 1.312 | Hamburger SV attack 1.027 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.155 / away 1.463 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
SV Sandhausen xG
Expected Goals
1.97
Hamburger SV xG
50%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Sandhausen vs Hamburger SV kick off?
SV Sandhausen vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald.
What was the final score in SV Sandhausen vs Hamburger SV?
SV Sandhausen 1 - 1 Hamburger SV.
Where is SV Sandhausen vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald.
What competition is SV Sandhausen vs Hamburger SV part of?
SV Sandhausen vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Sandhausen vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives SV Sandhausen a 13% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 62% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Sandhausen vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both SV Sandhausen and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will SV Sandhausen vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Sandhausen and Hamburger SV?
Record (1 meetings): SV Sandhausen 0W | Draws 0 | Hamburger SV 1W.
What form are SV Sandhausen and Hamburger SV in?
SV Sandhausen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Hamburger SV (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SV Sandhausen's attack rating (0.78) and Hamburger SV's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 0.82 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hamburger SV's attack (1.03x) against SV Sandhausen's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.97.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.2%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
13%
7.92
25%
3.98
62%
1.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.9%
Away win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
SV Sandhausen xG
Total xG
2.79
1.97
Hamburger SV xG
7.92
13%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
1.61
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
14%
7.19
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
2%
56.89
27%
3.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 12.1 | 11.9 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Sandhausen vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are SV Sandhausen and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for SV Sandhausen and 1.97 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Sandhausen vs Hamburger SV?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SV Sandhausen come into this having played 22 games, going 6W 6D 10L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-D. The sample for SV Sandhausen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hamburger SV sit at 1.82 PPG from 22 outings (10W 10D 2L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hamburger SV carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of SV Sandhausen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
SV Sandhausen's home form reads 1W 3D 6L across 10 games on their own ground, a 0.60 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.09 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Hamburger SV have taken 1.60 points per game from 10 outings (4W 4D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SV Sandhausen are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 1.86 scored and 0.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV in 68%.
Last 22 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Sandhausen
Blended
Hamburger SV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Sandhausen and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
SV Sandhausen have gone 6W 6D 10L in their last 22 games (1.09 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 10W 10D 2L in their last 22 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Sandhausen at home or Hamburger SV away?
Hamburger SV's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Sandhausen at home: 0.60 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Hamburger SV have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Sandhausen have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hamburger SV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
SV Sandhausen
1
Draws
3
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Sandhausen and Hamburger SV?
From 4 meetings on record, SV Sandhausen have won 0, Hamburger SV have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Sandhausen and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 28 May 2023, when SV Sandhausen 0-1 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between SV Sandhausen and Hamburger SV?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SV Sandhausen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Sandhausen 50%, Hamburger SV 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SV Sandhausen) and 40% (Hamburger SV).
On the defensive side: SV Sandhausen have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Sandhausen home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Sandhausen play Hamburger SV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of SV Sandhausen's games and 60% of Hamburger SV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Sandhausen vs Hamburger SV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of SV Sandhausen's recent games and 40% of Hamburger SV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Sandhausen and Hamburger SV tend to score early?
SV Sandhausen have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Hamburger SV in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Sandhausen and Hamburger SV share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald, Regular Season - 23, as SV Sandhausen and Hamburger SV drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Sandhausen 0.82 xG and Hamburger SV 1.97 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Hamburger SV landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Sandhausen attack 0.78 / defence 1.31 against Hamburger SV attack 1.03 / defence 0.91, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Sandhausen 13% | Draw 25% | Hamburger SV 62%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Sandhausen 54%, Hamburger SV 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Sandhausen's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SV Sandhausen (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.