SV Sandhausen 1-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Sandhausen at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Sandhausen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 3 as SV Sandhausen welcome Fortuna Düsseldorf to BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald. Kick-off is set for Friday 5 August 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SV Sandhausen — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. SV Sandhausen have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SV Sandhausen's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Fortuna Düsseldorf have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Fortuna Düsseldorf's 1.90 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of SV Sandhausen's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for SV Sandhausen, 1 for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 17 Dec 2021, ended 1–0 with SV Sandhausen winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
SV Sandhausen in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Sandhausen 67% and Fortuna Düsseldorf 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Sandhausen 53% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Sandhausen 1.40 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Sandhausen attack 1.027 / defence 0.968 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.962 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.385. Data: 36 SV Sandhausen games / 36 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SV Sandhausen 39% | Draw 28% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 34%. Fair-value odds: SV Sandhausen 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SV Sandhausen are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fortuna Düsseldorf (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Sandhausen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SV Sandhausen 70% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Sandhausen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald • Kick-off: Friday 5 Aug 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Sandhausen 39% | Draw 28% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG SV Sandhausen 1.40 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: SV Sandhausen attack 1.027 / def 0.968 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.962 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.385 • Poisson stance: SV Sandhausen (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
SV Sandhausen xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Sandhausen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
SV Sandhausen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 5 August 2022 at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald.
What was the final score in SV Sandhausen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
SV Sandhausen 1 - 0 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is SV Sandhausen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald.
What competition is SV Sandhausen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
SV Sandhausen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Sandhausen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives SV Sandhausen a 39% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SV Sandhausen the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Sandhausen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both SV Sandhausen and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will SV Sandhausen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Sandhausen and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Record (2 meetings): SV Sandhausen 1W | Draws 0 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 1W.
What form are SV Sandhausen and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
SV Sandhausen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SV Sandhausen's attack rating (1.03) and Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack versus SV Sandhausen's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Sandhausen Win
39%
2.59
28%
3.61
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
SV Sandhausen xG
Total xG
2.68
1.29
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
11%
9.40
8%
11.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.3 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Sandhausen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are SV Sandhausen and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for SV Sandhausen and 1.29 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Sandhausen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, SV Sandhausen have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 11W 11D 14L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for SV Sandhausen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's form line: 13W 11D 12L from 36 games, 1.39 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: SV Sandhausen on 1.22 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SV Sandhausen have posted 1.11 PPG from 18 outings (5W 5D 8L).
On the road, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 6W 5D 7L from 18 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
SV Sandhausen are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.36 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Sandhausen have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Fortuna Düsseldorf in 61%.
Last 36 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Sandhausen
Early Season
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Sandhausen and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
SV Sandhausen have gone 11W 11D 14L in their last 36 games (1.22 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 13W 11D 12L in their last 36 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Sandhausen at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's away record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Sandhausen at home: 1.11 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SV Sandhausen and Fortuna Düsseldorf runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
SV Sandhausen's record when hosting Fortuna Düsseldorf specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
SV Sandhausen
0
Draws
2
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Sandhausen and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 4 meetings on record, SV Sandhausen have won 2, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Sandhausen and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2023, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-0 SV Sandhausen.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SV Sandhausen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Fortuna Düsseldorf see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Sandhausen 67%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (SV Sandhausen) and 44% (Fortuna Düsseldorf).
On the defensive side: SV Sandhausen have failed to score in 28% of games; Fortuna Düsseldorf in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Sandhausen home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Sandhausen play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of SV Sandhausen's games and 50% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Sandhausen vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of SV Sandhausen's recent games and 44% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Sandhausen and Fortuna Düsseldorf tend to score early?
SV Sandhausen have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SV Sandhausen edge out Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Sandhausen beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-0 at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald, Regular Season - 3, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Sandhausen 1.40 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.29 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fortuna Düsseldorf landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Sandhausen attack 1.03 / defence 0.97 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.96 / defence 0.90, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it SV Sandhausen 39% | Draw 28% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 34%, with SV Sandhausen to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Sandhausen 53%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Sandhausen's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Sandhausen 1.22 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Sandhausen win broke the near-deadlock. SV Sandhausen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.