SV Elversberg 0-3 SV Wehen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Elversberg at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Elversberg vs SV Wehen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
SV Wehen travel to URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde to take on SV Elversberg in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 24). The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 March 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Guide
SV Elversberg — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
SV Elversberg's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — SV Elversberg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, SV Wehen stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, SV Wehen have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
SV Elversberg are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, SV Elversberg have won 1, SV Wehen 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2023, ended SV Elversberg 2–0 SV Wehen — a SV Elversberg win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
SV Elversberg in-play and half-time data (last 23 games, 11 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
SV Wehen in-play and half-time data (last 23 games, 11 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Elversberg 70% and SV Wehen 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Elversberg 65% | SV Wehen 39%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SV Elversberg surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while SV Wehen have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that SV Wehen surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while SV Elversberg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Elversberg 1.54 xG and SV Wehen 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Elversberg attack 0.998 / defence 1.093 | SV Wehen attack 0.787 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.604 / away 1.372. SV Wehen's attack rating of 0.787 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.18. Data: built from SV Elversberg's last 23 games and SV Wehen's last 23.
Result probabilities: SV Elversberg 46% | Draw 25% | SV Wehen 29%. Fair-value odds: SV Elversberg 2.19 | Draw 3.97 | SV Wehen 3.44. SV Elversberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Elversberg at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Elversberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SV Elversberg's last 10 home games and SV Wehen's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SV Elversberg 60% (last 10 home games) | SV Wehen 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Elversberg vs SV Wehen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 24 | Venue: URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde • Kick-off: Sunday 3 March 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Elversberg 46% | Draw 25% | SV Wehen 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG SV Elversberg 1.54 / SV Wehen 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: SV Elversberg attack 0.998 / def 1.093 | SV Wehen attack 0.787 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.604 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: SV Elversberg (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
SV Elversberg xG
Expected Goals
1.18
SV Wehen xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SV Elversberg vs SV Wehen FAQs
What time does SV Elversberg vs SV Wehen kick off?
SV Elversberg vs SV Wehen kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 3 March 2024 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What was the final score in SV Elversberg vs SV Wehen?
SV Elversberg 0 - 3 SV Wehen.
Where is SV Elversberg vs SV Wehen being played?
The match is being played at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What competition is SV Elversberg vs SV Wehen part of?
SV Elversberg vs SV Wehen is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 24) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Elversberg vs SV Wehen?
Our statistical model gives SV Elversberg a 46% chance of winning, SV Wehen a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SV Elversberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Elversberg vs SV Wehen?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both SV Elversberg and SV Wehen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SV Elversberg vs SV Wehen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SV Elversberg's attack at 1.00x the league average against SV Wehen's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SV Wehen's attack versus SV Elversberg's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SV Elversberg's last 23 games and SV Wehen's last 23 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Elversberg Win
46%
2.19
25%
3.97
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
SV Elversberg xG
Total xG
2.72
1.18
SV Wehen xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
21%
4.69
Win to Nil
14%
7.12
6%
16.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.9 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SV Elversberg vs SV Wehen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Elversberg vs SV Wehen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are SV Elversberg and SV Wehen expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for SV Elversberg and 1.18 for SV Wehen, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Elversberg vs SV Wehen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 23 outings, SV Elversberg have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 9W 5D 9L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
SV Wehen's form line: 7W 6D 10L from 23 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: SV Elversberg on 1.39 PPG, SV Wehen on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, SV Elversberg have posted 1.55 PPG from their last 11 home games (5W 2D 4L).
On the road, SV Wehen have gone 2W 2D 7L from their last 11 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SV Wehen's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Elversberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SV Elversberg are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; SV Wehen are on 1.13 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Elversberg have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; SV Wehen in 61%.
Last 23 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Elversberg
Blended
SV Wehen
Blended
SV Elversberg (Home) vs SV Wehen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SV Elversberg
Blended
SV Wehen
Blended
❓ SV Elversberg vs SV Wehen Form FAQs
What form are SV Elversberg and SV Wehen in coming into this match?
SV Elversberg have gone 9W 5D 9L in their last 23 games (1.39 PPG), while SV Wehen have gone 7W 6D 10L in their last 23 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Elversberg at home or SV Wehen away?
SV Elversberg's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Elversberg at home: 1.55 PPG; SV Wehen away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2023. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 3 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
SV Elversberg
0
Draws
1
SV Wehen
Recent Meetings
❓ SV Elversberg vs SV Wehen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and SV Wehen?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, SV Elversberg have won 1, SV Wehen have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Elversberg and SV Wehen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 March 2024: SV Elversberg 0-3 SV Wehen.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
SV Wehen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Elversberg 64%, SV Wehen 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (SV Elversberg) and 46% (SV Wehen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg have failed to score in 27% of games; SV Wehen in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Elversberg home games / SV Wehen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SV Elversberg vs SV Wehen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SV Elversberg and SV Wehen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of SV Elversberg's games and 54% of SV Wehen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SV Elversberg and SV Wehen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of SV Elversberg's matches and 46% of SV Wehen's.
Do SV Elversberg and SV Wehen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of SV Elversberg's recent matches and 64% of SV Wehen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SV Wehen run riot with a 0-3 hammering of SV Elversberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Wehen beat SV Elversberg 0-3 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 24, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 1.54 xG and SV Wehen 1.18 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. SV Elversberg fell 1.5 short of their projected output. SV Wehen outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 1.00 / defence 1.09 against SV Wehen attack 0.79 / defence 0.96, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 46% | Draw 25% | SV Wehen 29%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual SV Wehen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 65%, SV Wehen 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Elversberg's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
SV Wehen's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Elversberg 1.39 PPG, SV Wehen 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Wehen win broke the near-deadlock. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SV Wehen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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