SV Elversberg 4-2 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hamburger SV at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Elversberg vs Hamburger SV encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
SV Elversberg welcome Hamburger SV to URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 10). Kick-off is Saturday 26 October 2024 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, SV Elversberg stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
SV Elversberg at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Hamburger SV have recorded 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hamburger SV away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hamburger SV are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, SV Elversberg have won 1, Hamburger SV 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Feb 2024, ended SV Elversberg 0–1 Hamburger SV — a Hamburger SV win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
SV Elversberg in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Hamburger SV in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Elversberg 60% versus Hamburger SV 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Elversberg 65% | Hamburger SV 63%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SV Elversberg surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Hamburger SV have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Elversberg 1.28 xG and Hamburger SV 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Elversberg attack 0.985 / defence 0.982 | Hamburger SV attack 1.135 / defence 0.784. League average goals — home 1.652 / away 1.505. Hamburger SV bring a tight defence (rating 0.784, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling SV Elversberg's projected output down. Data: built from SV Elversberg's last 43 games and Hamburger SV's last 43.
Result probabilities: SV Elversberg 28% | Draw 27% | Hamburger SV 45%. Fair-value odds: SV Elversberg 3.62 | Draw 3.71 | Hamburger SV 2.21. Hamburger SV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.28 / 1.68) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hamburger SV are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SV Elversberg's last 10 home games and Hamburger SV's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: SV Elversberg 40% (last 10 home games) | Hamburger SV 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Elversberg vs Hamburger SV | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 10 | Venue: URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde • Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Elversberg 28% | Draw 27% | Hamburger SV 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG SV Elversberg 1.28 / Hamburger SV 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: SV Elversberg attack 0.985 / def 0.982 | Hamburger SV attack 1.135 / def 0.784 | league avg home 1.652 / away 1.505 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
SV Elversberg xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Hamburger SV xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SV Elversberg vs Hamburger SV FAQs
What time does SV Elversberg vs Hamburger SV kick off?
SV Elversberg vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 26 October 2024 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What was the final score in SV Elversberg vs Hamburger SV?
SV Elversberg 4 - 2 Hamburger SV.
Where is SV Elversberg vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What competition is SV Elversberg vs Hamburger SV part of?
SV Elversberg vs Hamburger SV is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 10) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Elversberg vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives SV Elversberg a 28% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Elversberg vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both SV Elversberg and Hamburger SV will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SV Elversberg vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SV Elversberg's attack at 0.98x the league average against Hamburger SV's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hamburger SV's attack versus SV Elversberg's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SV Elversberg's last 43 games and Hamburger SV's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
28%
3.62
27%
3.71
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
SV Elversberg xG
Total xG
2.95
1.68
Hamburger SV xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
19%
5.35
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
5%
19.36
13%
7.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.7 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.2 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SV Elversberg vs Hamburger SV Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Elversberg vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are SV Elversberg and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for SV Elversberg and 1.68 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Elversberg vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SV Elversberg come into this having played 43 games, going 15W 11D 17L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-D.
On the other side, Hamburger SV sit at 1.77 PPG from 43 outings (22W 10D 11L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five.
Hamburger SV carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of SV Elversberg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
SV Elversberg's home form reads 8W 5D 8L across their last 21 home games, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Hamburger SV have taken 1.38 points per game from their last 21 away games (7W 8D 6L).
Goals in Recent Form
SV Elversberg are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 2.00 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Elversberg have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Elversberg
Blended
Hamburger SV
Blended
SV Elversberg (Home) vs Hamburger SV (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SV Elversberg
Blended
Hamburger SV
Blended
❓ SV Elversberg vs Hamburger SV Form FAQs
What form are SV Elversberg and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
SV Elversberg have gone 15W 11D 17L in their last 43 games (1.30 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 22W 10D 11L in their last 43 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Elversberg at home or Hamburger SV away?
SV Elversberg's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Elversberg at home: 1.38 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.38 PPG.
Have SV Elversberg or Hamburger SV been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Elversberg have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Hamburger SV in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2023. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 28 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
SV Elversberg's record when hosting Hamburger SV specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
SV Elversberg
1
Draws
1
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ SV Elversberg vs Hamburger SV H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and Hamburger SV?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, SV Elversberg have won 2, Hamburger SV have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did SV Elversberg and Hamburger SV last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 March 2025: Hamburger SV 0-0 SV Elversberg.
Who has won more matches between SV Elversberg and Hamburger SV?
SV Elversberg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Elversberg 52%, Hamburger SV 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for SV Elversberg and 62% for Hamburger SV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Elversberg home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SV Elversberg vs Hamburger SV Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SV Elversberg and Hamburger SV matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of SV Elversberg's games and 62% of Hamburger SV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SV Elversberg and Hamburger SV matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of SV Elversberg's matches and 62% of Hamburger SV's.
Do SV Elversberg and Hamburger SV matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of SV Elversberg's recent matches and 71% of Hamburger SV's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Elversberg cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Hamburger SV.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Elversberg beat Hamburger SV 4-2 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 10, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 1.28 xG and Hamburger SV 1.68 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. SV Elversberg beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 0.98 / defence 0.98 against Hamburger SV attack 1.14 / defence 0.78, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 28% | Draw 27% | Hamburger SV 45%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual SV Elversberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 65%, Hamburger SV 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Elversberg's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.30. Form was overturned, with SV Elversberg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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