SV Elversberg 0-2 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC St. Pauli at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Elversberg vs FC St. Pauli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde plays host to SV Elversberg versus FC St. Pauli in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Friday 3 November 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
SV Elversberg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SV Elversberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Elversberg's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 2L across 5 games at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC St. Pauli (all games): 5W 5D 0L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC St. Pauli's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for SV Elversberg, 2.00 for FC St. Pauli — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SV Elversberg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC St. Pauli in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
SV Elversberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games).
FC St. Pauli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Elversberg 64% and FC St. Pauli 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Elversberg 64% | FC St. Pauli 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Elversberg 1.22 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Elversberg attack 0.888 / defence 1.208 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.100 / defence 0.800. League average goals — home 1.718 / away 1.340. Data: 11 SV Elversberg games / 45 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Elversberg 26% | Draw 25% | FC St. Pauli 50%. Fair-value odds: SV Elversberg 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | FC St. Pauli 2.00. FC St. Pauli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC St. Pauli as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: SV Elversberg 60% | FC St. Pauli 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Elversberg vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde • Kick-off: Friday 3 Nov 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Elversberg 26% | Draw 25% | FC St. Pauli 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG SV Elversberg 1.22 / FC St. Pauli 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: SV Elversberg attack 0.888 / def 1.208 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.100 / def 0.800 | league avg home 1.718 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
SV Elversberg xG
Expected Goals
1.78
FC St. Pauli xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Elversberg vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
SV Elversberg vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 3 November 2023 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What was the final score in SV Elversberg vs FC St. Pauli?
SV Elversberg 0 - 2 FC St. Pauli.
Where is SV Elversberg vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What competition is SV Elversberg vs FC St. Pauli part of?
SV Elversberg vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Elversberg vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives SV Elversberg a 26% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Elversberg vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both SV Elversberg and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will SV Elversberg vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and FC St. Pauli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SV Elversberg and FC St. Pauli in?
SV Elversberg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SV Elversberg's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against FC St. Pauli's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. Flip it around — FC St. Pauli's attack (1.10x) against SV Elversberg's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.78.
These ratings are built from 11/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
26%
3.92
25%
4.07
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
SV Elversberg xG
Total xG
3.00
1.78
FC St. Pauli xG
3.92
26%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
17%
5.94
30%
3.39
Win to Nil
4%
23.26
15%
6.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.9 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Elversberg vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are SV Elversberg and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for SV Elversberg and 1.78 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Elversberg vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SV Elversberg's recent record stands at 5W 3D 3L from 11 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for SV Elversberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC St. Pauli, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 0L across 11 games — 2.09 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC St. Pauli by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SV Elversberg heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, SV Elversberg have managed 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC St. Pauli's away record stands at 2W 3D 0L across 5 trips, a 1.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC St. Pauli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SV Elversberg are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 2.00 scored and 0.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Elversberg have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; FC St. Pauli in 73%.
Last 11 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Elversberg
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Elversberg and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
SV Elversberg have gone 5W 3D 3L in their last 11 games (1.64 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 6W 5D 0L in their last 11 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Elversberg at home or FC St. Pauli away?
FC St. Pauli's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Elversberg at home: 1.40 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 1.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
SV Elversberg
0
Draws
1
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and FC St. Pauli?
From 2 meetings on record, SV Elversberg have won 1, FC St. Pauli have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Elversberg and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2024, when FC St. Pauli 3-4 SV Elversberg.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
FC St. Pauli see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for SV Elversberg, 80% for FC St. Pauli — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for SV Elversberg and 60% for FC St. Pauli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Elversberg home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Elversberg play FC St. Pauli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of SV Elversberg's games and 80% of FC St. Pauli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Elversberg vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of SV Elversberg's matches and 60% of FC St. Pauli's.
Do SV Elversberg and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
SV Elversberg have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC St. Pauli cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SV Elversberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat SV Elversberg 0-2 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 12, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 1.22 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.78 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. SV Elversberg fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 0.89 / defence 1.21 against FC St. Pauli attack 1.10 / defence 0.80, drawn from 11/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 26% | Draw 25% | FC St. Pauli 50%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 64%, FC St. Pauli 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Elversberg's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.64. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.