SV Elversberg 3-1 Eintracht Braunschweig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Elversberg at 42% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Elversberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Waldstadion Kaiserlinde plays host to SV Elversberg versus Eintracht Braunschweig in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 23). Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 12:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
SV Elversberg have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, SV Elversberg have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Eintracht Braunschweig (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Eintracht Braunschweig's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for SV Elversberg against 1.50 for Eintracht Braunschweig. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, SV Elversberg have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins, with Eintracht Braunschweig managing 1 and 0 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 Sep 2025, ended SV Elversberg 4–1 Eintracht Braunschweig — a SV Elversberg win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both SV Elversberg and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 3.8 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading
SV Elversberg half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Eintracht Braunschweig half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Elversberg 53% versus Eintracht Braunschweig 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Elversberg 59% | Eintracht Braunschweig 55%). Note also that Eintracht Braunschweig surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while SV Elversberg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 62% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Elversberg 1.44 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Elversberg attack 0.920 / defence 0.922 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.893 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.344. Data: built from SV Elversberg's last 56 games and Eintracht Braunschweig's last 56.
Result probabilities: SV Elversberg 42% | Draw 31% | Eintracht Braunschweig 27%. Fair-value odds: SV Elversberg 2.35 | Draw 3.27 | Eintracht Braunschweig 3.71. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SV Elversberg are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (SV Elversberg 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Elversberg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: SV Elversberg 40% (last 10 home games) | Eintracht Braunschweig 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Elversberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 23 | Venue: Waldstadion Kaiserlinde • Kick-off: Saturday 21 February 2026 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Elversberg 42% | Draw 31% | Eintracht Braunschweig 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG SV Elversberg 1.44 / Eintracht Braunschweig 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: SV Elversberg attack 0.920 / def 0.922 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.893 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: SV Elversberg (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
SV Elversberg xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SV Elversberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig FAQs
What time does SV Elversberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig kick off?
SV Elversberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 21 February 2026 at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde.
What was the final score in SV Elversberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
SV Elversberg 3 - 1 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Where is SV Elversberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig being played?
The match is being played at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde.
What competition is SV Elversberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig part of?
SV Elversberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 23) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Elversberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our statistical model gives SV Elversberg a 42% chance of winning, Eintracht Braunschweig a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making SV Elversberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Elversberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both SV Elversberg and Eintracht Braunschweig will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SV Elversberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SV Elversberg's attack rating (0.92) and Eintracht Braunschweig's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Eintracht Braunschweig's attack (0.89x) against SV Elversberg's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from SV Elversberg's last 56 games and Eintracht Braunschweig's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Elversberg Win
42%
2.35
31%
3.27
27%
3.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
SV Elversberg xG
Total xG
2.54
1.11
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
2.35
42%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.71
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
14%
7.12
6%
15.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.5 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SV Elversberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Elversberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are SV Elversberg and Eintracht Braunschweig expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for SV Elversberg and 1.11 for Eintracht Braunschweig, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Elversberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SV Elversberg's recent record stands at 28W 16D 14L from 58 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five.
Eintracht Braunschweig, meanwhile, have gone 16W 16D 26L across 58 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours SV Elversberg by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Eintracht Braunschweig heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, SV Elversberg have managed 14W 7D 7L from their last 28 home games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eintracht Braunschweig's away record stands at 6W 7D 15L across their last 28 away games, a 0.89 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Elversberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SV Elversberg are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Braunschweig are on 1.16 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Elversberg
Blended
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
SV Elversberg (Home) vs Eintracht Braunschweig (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SV Elversberg
Blended
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
❓ SV Elversberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig Form FAQs
What form are SV Elversberg and Eintracht Braunschweig in coming into this match?
SV Elversberg have gone 28W 16D 14L in their last 58 games (1.72 PPG), while Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 16W 16D 26L in their last 58 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Elversberg at home or Eintracht Braunschweig away?
SV Elversberg's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Elversberg at home: 1.75 PPG; Eintracht Braunschweig away: 0.89 PPG.
Have SV Elversberg or Eintracht Braunschweig been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Elversberg have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Eintracht Braunschweig in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between SV Elversberg and Eintracht Braunschweig, the earliest from October 2023. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 21 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
SV Elversberg have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Eintracht Braunschweig won Eintracht Braunschweig 5-0 SV Elversberg on 30 Mar 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Elversberg have gone 3W 0D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Eintracht Braunschweig — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
SV Elversberg
0
Draws
1
Eintracht Braunschweig
Recent Meetings
❓ SV Elversberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, SV Elversberg have won 5, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Elversberg and Eintracht Braunschweig last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 February 2026: SV Elversberg 3-1 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Who has won more matches between SV Elversberg and Eintracht Braunschweig?
SV Elversberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Elversberg 54%, Eintracht Braunschweig 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for SV Elversberg and 54% for Eintracht Braunschweig. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Eintracht Braunschweig in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Elversberg home games / Eintracht Braunschweig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SV Elversberg vs Eintracht Braunschweig Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SV Elversberg and Eintracht Braunschweig matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of SV Elversberg's games and 57% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SV Elversberg and Eintracht Braunschweig matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of SV Elversberg's matches and 54% of Eintracht Braunschweig's.
Do SV Elversberg and Eintracht Braunschweig matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of SV Elversberg's recent matches and 75% of Eintracht Braunschweig's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Elversberg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Eintracht Braunschweig.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Elversberg beat Eintracht Braunschweig 3-1 at Waldstadion Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 23, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 1.44 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.11 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. SV Elversberg beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 0.92 / defence 0.92 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.89 / defence 1.06, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 42% | Draw 31% | Eintracht Braunschweig 27%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 59%, Eintracht Braunschweig 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Elversberg's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Elversberg arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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