SV Elversberg 0-1 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Elversberg at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Nürnberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SV Elversberg host 1. FC Nürnberg at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 16). Kick-off is Sunday 10 December 2023 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Guide
SV Elversberg — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, SV Elversberg have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 home games (1.43 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.43 lags behind their overall 2.00 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, 1. FC Nürnberg stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
1. FC Nürnberg's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
SV Elversberg carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
SV Elversberg in-play and half-time data (last 15 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
1. FC Nürnberg in-play and half-time data (last 15 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Elversberg 67% and 1. FC Nürnberg 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SV Elversberg 67% | 1. FC Nürnberg 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Elversberg 2.19 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Elversberg attack 1.023 / defence 1.069 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.032 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.685 / away 1.465. 1. FC Nürnberg's defence rating of 1.268 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SV Elversberg's projected output up. Data: built from SV Elversberg's last 15 games and 1. FC Nürnberg's last 49.
Result probabilities: SV Elversberg 50% | Draw 21% | 1. FC Nürnberg 28%. Fair-value odds: SV Elversberg 1.98 | Draw 4.69 | 1. FC Nürnberg 3.54. SV Elversberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS Yes probability 72% | Total xG 3.80. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.80 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% — both xG figures (2.19 / 1.62) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Elversberg at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.80 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SV Elversberg's last 7 home games and 1. FC Nürnberg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SV Elversberg 57% (last 7 home games) | 1. FC Nürnberg 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 16 | Venue: URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde • Kick-off: Sunday 10 December 2023 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Elversberg 50% | Draw 21% | 1. FC Nürnberg 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% (Under 27%) | BTTS Yes 72% (No 28%) | xG SV Elversberg 2.19 / 1. FC Nürnberg 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: SV Elversberg attack 1.023 / def 1.069 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.032 / def 1.268 | league avg home 1.685 / away 1.465 • Poisson stance: SV Elversberg (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
SV Elversberg xG
Expected Goals
1.62
1. FC Nürnberg xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Nürnberg FAQs
What time does SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 10 December 2023 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What was the final score in SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
SV Elversberg 0 - 1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What competition is SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 16) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives SV Elversberg a 50% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 28% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making SV Elversberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both SV Elversberg and 1. FC Nürnberg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SV Elversberg's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Nürnberg's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.19. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Nürnberg's attack versus SV Elversberg's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SV Elversberg's last 15 games and 1. FC Nürnberg's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Elversberg Win
50%
1.98
21%
4.69
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
SV Elversberg xG
Total xG
3.80
1.62
1. FC Nürnberg xG
1.98
50%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.40
28%
BTTS No
3.51
Clean Sheet
20%
5.04
11%
8.91
Win to Nil
10%
9.98
3%
31.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.3 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Nürnberg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are SV Elversberg and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for SV Elversberg and 1.62 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 3.80.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 15 outings, SV Elversberg have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 7W 3D 5L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
1. FC Nürnberg's form line: 6W 3D 6L from 15 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: SV Elversberg on 1.60 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, SV Elversberg have posted 1.43 PPG from their last 7 home games (3W 1D 3L).
On the road, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 3W 1D 3L from their last 7 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
SV Elversberg are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 1.53 scored and 2.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Elversberg have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; 1. FC Nürnberg in 73%.
Last 15 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Elversberg
Blended
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
SV Elversberg (Home) vs 1. FC Nürnberg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SV Elversberg
Blended
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
❓ SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Nürnberg Form FAQs
What form are SV Elversberg and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
SV Elversberg have gone 7W 3D 5L in their last 15 games (1.60 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 6W 3D 6L in their last 15 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Elversberg at home or 1. FC Nürnberg away?
SV Elversberg's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Elversberg at home: 1.43 PPG; 1. FC Nürnberg away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from December 2023. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 17 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 May 2024, when 1. FC Nürnberg won 1. FC Nürnberg 3-0 SV Elversberg.
SV Elversberg's record when hosting 1. FC Nürnberg specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
SV Elversberg
0
Draws
3
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Nürnberg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and 1. FC Nürnberg?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, SV Elversberg have won 3, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Elversberg and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 January 2026: 1. FC Nürnberg 3-2 SV Elversberg.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SV Elversberg at 57%, 1. FC Nürnberg at 86%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for SV Elversberg and 86% for 1. FC Nürnberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 86% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Elversberg home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SV Elversberg vs 1. FC Nürnberg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SV Elversberg and 1. FC Nürnberg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of SV Elversberg's games and 86% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SV Elversberg and 1. FC Nürnberg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of SV Elversberg's matches and 86% of 1. FC Nürnberg's.
Do SV Elversberg and 1. FC Nürnberg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of SV Elversberg's recent matches and 86% of 1. FC Nürnberg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as 1. FC Nürnberg defy the odds to beat SV Elversberg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg beat SV Elversberg 0-1 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 16, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 2.19 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.62 xG, a combined 3.80. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SV Elversberg fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 1.02 / defence 1.07 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.03 / defence 1.27, drawn from 15/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 50% | Draw 21% | 1. FC Nürnberg 28%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual 1. FC Nürnberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 67%, 1. FC Nürnberg 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Elversberg's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Elversberg 1.60 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Nürnberg win broke the near-deadlock. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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