SV Darmstadt 98 4-2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees SpVgg Greuther Fürth travel to Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor to take on SV Darmstadt 98. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 November 2025, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SV Darmstadt 98 stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98 at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — SV Darmstadt 98 are significantly better at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor than their overall form suggests.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
SV Darmstadt 98 are in the better shape of the two on current 2. Bundesliga data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for SV Darmstadt 98, 1 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 1–0 with SV Darmstadt 98 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SV Darmstadt 98 trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Darmstadt 98 63% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 61% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 2.00 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.993 / defence 0.832 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.049 / defence 1.432. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.317. SpVgg Greuther Fürth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.432 — this is suppressing SV Darmstadt 98's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 46 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 57% | Draw 21% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 21%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 1.75 | Draw 4.76 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4.76. The model has a clear lean to SV Darmstadt 98 (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.15 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SV Darmstadt 98 50% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 57% | Draw 21% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 59% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 2.00 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.993 / def 0.832 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.049 / def 1.432 | league avg home 1.408 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.15
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SV Darmstadt 98 4 - 2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 57% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 21% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (4 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 2W | Draws 1 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1W.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SV Darmstadt 98's attack rating (0.99) and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 2.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus SV Darmstadt 98's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
57%
1.75
21%
4.66
21%
4.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
3.15
1.15
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
4.67
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
14%
7.40
Win to Nil
18%
5.52
3%
34.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.9 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.15 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, SV Darmstadt 98 have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 17W 13D 16L record — D-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form line: 14W 10D 22L from 46 games, 1.13 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SV Darmstadt 98 on 1.39 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SV Darmstadt 98 have posted 1.74 PPG from 23 outings (11W 7D 5L).
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 6W 4D 13L from 23 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.37 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Darmstadt 98 have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 17W 13D 16L in their last 46 games (1.39 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 14W 10D 22L in their last 46 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 1.74 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 May 2023, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SV Darmstadt 98's record when hosting SpVgg Greuther Fürth specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
SV Darmstadt 98
1
Draws
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 6 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 3, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-2 SV Darmstadt 98.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 52%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 61% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; SV Darmstadt 98 have failed to score in 30% of games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 52% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of SV Darmstadt 98's matches and 61% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Darmstadt 98 cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4-2 at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor, Regular Season - 13, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 2.00 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.15 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SpVgg Greuther Fürth outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.99 / defence 0.83 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.05 / defence 1.43, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 57% | Draw 21% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 21%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 61%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Darmstadt 98 1.39 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Darmstadt 98 win broke the near-deadlock. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.