SV Darmstadt 98 3-0 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor plays host to SV Darmstadt 98 versus SC Paderborn 07 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SV Darmstadt 98 have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SV Darmstadt 98's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SC Paderborn 07's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
SC Paderborn 07 away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: SV Darmstadt 98 1W, SC Paderborn 07 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 1–0 with SV Darmstadt 98 winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
SV Darmstadt 98 half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
SC Paderborn 07 half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Darmstadt 98 58% and SC Paderborn 07 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 67% | SC Paderborn 07 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.71 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.437 / defence 1.313 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.843 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.154 / away 1.444. SV Darmstadt 98 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.437 — their λ of 1.71 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 33 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 33 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 38% | Draw 29% | SC Paderborn 07 33%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | SC Paderborn 07 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SV Darmstadt 98 70% | SC Paderborn 07 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 38% | Draw 29% | SC Paderborn 07 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 68% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.71 / SC Paderborn 07 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.437 / def 1.313 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.843 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.154 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.60
SC Paderborn 07 xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07?
SV Darmstadt 98 3 - 0 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 38% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (1 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 1W | Draws 0 | SC Paderborn 07 0W.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07 in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SV Darmstadt 98's attack at 1.44x the league average against SC Paderborn 07's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SC Paderborn 07's attack (0.84x) against SV Darmstadt 98's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
38%
2.63
29%
3.49
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
3.31
1.60
SC Paderborn 07 xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.15
Clean Sheet
20%
4.94
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
8%
12.99
6%
16.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.8 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.9 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.60 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SV Darmstadt 98 come into this having played 33 games, going 17W 6D 10L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.55 PPG from 33 outings (13W 12D 8L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.73 PPG for SV Darmstadt 98 against 1.55 for SC Paderborn 07. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
SV Darmstadt 98's home form reads 9W 3D 4L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Paderborn 07 have taken 2.00 points per game from 16 outings (9W 5D 2L). That's actually stronger than their 1.55 PPG overall record — SC Paderborn 07 travel well.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.70 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 in 64%.
Last 33 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Current Season
SC Paderborn 07
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 17W 6D 10L in their last 33 games (1.73 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 13W 12D 8L in their last 33 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 1.88 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 2.00 PPG.
Have SV Darmstadt 98 or SC Paderborn 07 been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Darmstadt 98 have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, SC Paderborn 07 in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SV Darmstadt 98 won 3-0 on 15 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against SC Paderborn 07 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
SV Darmstadt 98
1
Draws
3
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07?
From 8 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 4, SC Paderborn 07 have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when SV Darmstadt 98 0-2 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 50%, SC Paderborn 07 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for SV Darmstadt 98 and 56% for SC Paderborn 07. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; SC Paderborn 07 in 31%; SC Paderborn 07 in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play SC Paderborn 07?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 56% of SC Paderborn 07's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of SV Darmstadt 98's matches and 56% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SV Darmstadt 98 run riot with a 3-0 hammering of SC Paderborn 07.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat SC Paderborn 07 3-0 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 34, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.71 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.60 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SC Paderborn 07 landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.44 / defence 1.31 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.84 / defence 1.03, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 38% | Draw 29% | SC Paderborn 07 33%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 67%, SC Paderborn 07 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Darmstadt 98 1.73 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Darmstadt 98 win broke the near-deadlock. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.