SV Darmstadt 98 0-2 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor plays host to SV Darmstadt 98 versus SC Paderborn 07 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SV Darmstadt 98 have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
SV Darmstadt 98's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — SV Darmstadt 98 are significantly better at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor than their overall form suggests.
SC Paderborn 07's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D L L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
SC Paderborn 07 away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
SC Paderborn 07 arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: SV Darmstadt 98 4W, SC Paderborn 07 2W, 1D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
SV Darmstadt 98 half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
SC Paderborn 07 half-time and goal-timing data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Darmstadt 98 66% and SC Paderborn 07 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 61% | SC Paderborn 07 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.77 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.110 / defence 0.993 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.025 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.620 / away 1.258. Data: 67 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 67 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 48% | Draw 26% | SC Paderborn 07 26%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | SC Paderborn 07 3.85. SV Darmstadt 98 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
SV Darmstadt 98 dominate the H2H record, yet SC Paderborn 07 are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates SV Darmstadt 98 as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SC Paderborn 07 (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SV Darmstadt 98 50% | SC Paderborn 07 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 48% | Draw 26% | SC Paderborn 07 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.77 / SC Paderborn 07 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.110 / def 0.993 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.025 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.620 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.28
SC Paderborn 07 xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07?
SV Darmstadt 98 0 - 2 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 48% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (7 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 4W | Draws 1 | SC Paderborn 07 2W.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07 in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SV Darmstadt 98's attack at 1.11x the league average against SC Paderborn 07's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SC Paderborn 07's attack (1.02x) against SV Darmstadt 98's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
48%
2.10
26%
3.82
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
3.05
1.28
SC Paderborn 07 xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
13%
7.57
4%
22.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.7 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.28 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SV Darmstadt 98 come into this having played 67 games, going 24W 22D 21L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-D.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.70 PPG from 67 outings (32W 18D 17L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for SV Darmstadt 98 against 1.70 for SC Paderborn 07. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
SV Darmstadt 98's home form reads 18W 9D 6L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.91 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — SV Darmstadt 98 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, SC Paderborn 07 have taken 1.64 points per game from 33 outings (14W 12D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.69 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Darmstadt 98 have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; SC Paderborn 07 in 69%.
Last 67 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Current Season
SC Paderborn 07
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 24W 22D 21L in their last 67 games (1.40 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 32W 18D 17L in their last 67 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 1.91 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SV Darmstadt 98 won 3-0 on 15 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against SC Paderborn 07 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
SV Darmstadt 98
1
Draws
3
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07?
From 8 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 4, SC Paderborn 07 have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when SV Darmstadt 98 0-2 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 52%, SC Paderborn 07 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 52% (SC Paderborn 07).
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; SC Paderborn 07 in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of SV Darmstadt 98's games and 61% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent games and 52% of SC Paderborn 07's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Paderborn 07 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SV Darmstadt 98.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat SV Darmstadt 98 0-2 at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor, Regular Season - 34, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.77 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.28 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.11 / defence 0.99 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.02 / defence 0.99, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 48% | Draw 26% | SC Paderborn 07 26%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual SC Paderborn 07 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 61%, SC Paderborn 07 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Darmstadt 98 1.40 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Paderborn 07 win broke the near-deadlock. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.