SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Hertha BSC at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SV Darmstadt 98 and Hertha BSC meet at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 May 2027 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
SV Darmstadt 98 (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — SV Darmstadt 98 are significantly better at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor than their overall form suggests.
Hertha BSC's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Hertha BSC are 1.70 PPG clear of SV Darmstadt 98 in recent 2. Bundesliga fixtures (2.50 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SV Darmstadt 98 have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Hertha BSC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SV Darmstadt 98 lead 1W to 0W over the last 4 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
SV Darmstadt 98 — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Hertha BSC — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 60% versus Hertha BSC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 60% | Hertha BSC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.49 xG and Hertha BSC 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.023 / defence 1.021 | Hertha BSC attack 1.273 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.665 / away 1.253. Hertha BSC have an above-average attack strength of 1.273 — the away xG of 1.63 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 42 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 35% | Draw 24% | Hertha BSC 41%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 2.86 | Draw 4.17 | Hertha BSC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hertha BSC as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SV Darmstadt 98 60% | Hertha BSC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor • Kick-off: Sunday 9 May 2027, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 35% | Draw 24% | Hertha BSC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.49 / Hertha BSC 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.023 / def 1.021 | Hertha BSC attack 1.273 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.665 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Hertha BSC xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC is scheduled to kick off at 11:30 on Sunday 9 May 2027 at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 35% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and Hertha BSC?
Record (4 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 1W | Draws 3 | Hertha BSC 0W.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and Hertha BSC in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Hertha BSC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SV Darmstadt 98's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Hertha BSC's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. Flip it around — Hertha BSC's attack (1.27x) against SV Darmstadt 98's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.63.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
35%
2.85
24%
4.20
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
3.12
1.63
Hertha BSC xG
2.85
35%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
20%
5.10
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
7%
14.55
9%
10.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.7 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.63 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, SV Darmstadt 98 have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 15W 14D 13L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hertha BSC's form line: 21W 10D 11L from 42 games, 1.74 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for SV Darmstadt 98 against 1.74 for Hertha BSC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SV Darmstadt 98 have posted 2.00 PPG from 21 outings (12W 6D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — SV Darmstadt 98 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Hertha BSC have gone 12W 5D 4L from 21 away games — 1.95 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.57 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 42 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 15W 14D 13L in their last 42 games (1.40 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 21W 10D 11L in their last 42 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or Hertha BSC away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 2.00 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 1.95 PPG.
Have SV Darmstadt 98 or Hertha BSC been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Darmstadt 98 have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Hertha BSC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hertha BSC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
SV Darmstadt 98
3
Draws
0
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and Hertha BSC?
From 4 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 1, Hertha BSC have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Hertha BSC 2-2 SV Darmstadt 98.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and Hertha BSC?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 52%, Hertha BSC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 62% (Hertha BSC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Hertha BSC in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play Hertha BSC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 52% of Hertha BSC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of SV Darmstadt 98's matches and 62% of Hertha BSC's.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.