SV Darmstadt 98 4-0 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hansa Rostock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hansa Rostock make the trip to Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor to face SV Darmstadt 98 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 August 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
SV Darmstadt 98's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SV Darmstadt 98 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have posted 5W 3D 2L at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hansa Rostock (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Hansa Rostock have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hansa Rostock's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward SV Darmstadt 98. A 0.50 PPG lead over Hansa Rostock (1.80 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SV Darmstadt 98 lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
SV Darmstadt 98 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Hansa Rostock goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 54% versus Hansa Rostock 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 65% | Hansa Rostock 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.57 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.274 / defence 0.998 | Hansa Rostock attack 1.000 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.321. SV Darmstadt 98 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — their λ of 1.57 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 37 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 37 Hansa Rostock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 43% | Draw 25% | Hansa Rostock 32%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Hansa Rostock 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SV Darmstadt 98 are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SV Darmstadt 98 70% | Hansa Rostock 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 43% | Draw 25% | Hansa Rostock 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.57 / Hansa Rostock 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.274 / def 0.998 | Hansa Rostock attack 1.000 / def 0.855 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Hansa Rostock xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hansa Rostock?
SV Darmstadt 98 4 - 0 Hansa Rostock.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hansa Rostock part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hansa Rostock is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 43% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and Hansa Rostock will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and Hansa Rostock?
Record (2 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 0W | Draws 1 | Hansa Rostock 1W.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and Hansa Rostock in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Hansa Rostock (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SV Darmstadt 98's attack at 1.27x the league average against Hansa Rostock's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hansa Rostock's attack (1.00x) against SV Darmstadt 98's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
43%
2.30
25%
4.07
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
2.89
1.32
Hansa Rostock xG
2.30
43%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
12%
8.61
7%
15.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.5 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.32 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hansa Rostock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SV Darmstadt 98 come into this having played 37 games, going 20W 6D 11L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Hansa Rostock sit at 1.27 PPG from 37 outings (12W 11D 14L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SV Darmstadt 98 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Hansa Rostock — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
SV Darmstadt 98's home form reads 11W 3D 4L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Hansa Rostock have taken 1.50 points per game from 18 outings (7W 6D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 1.19 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 37 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Early Season
Hansa Rostock
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 20W 6D 11L in their last 37 games (1.78 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 12W 11D 14L in their last 37 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or Hansa Rostock away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 2.00 PPG; Hansa Rostock away: 1.50 PPG.
Have SV Darmstadt 98 or Hansa Rostock been keeping clean sheets recently?
SV Darmstadt 98 have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Hansa Rostock in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: SV Darmstadt 98 have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SV Darmstadt 98 won 4-0 on 13 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hansa Rostock — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
SV Darmstadt 98
1
Draws
1
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and Hansa Rostock?
From 4 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 2, Hansa Rostock have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Hansa Rostock 0-1 SV Darmstadt 98.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and Hansa Rostock?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 50%, Hansa Rostock 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for SV Darmstadt 98 and 56% for Hansa Rostock. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Hansa Rostock in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play Hansa Rostock?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 44% of Hansa Rostock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hansa Rostock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of SV Darmstadt 98's matches and 56% of Hansa Rostock's.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and Hansa Rostock tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Hansa Rostock in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SV Darmstadt 98 run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Hansa Rostock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat Hansa Rostock 4-0 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 4, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.57 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.32 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hansa Rostock landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.27 / defence 1.00 against Hansa Rostock attack 1.00 / defence 0.85, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 43% | Draw 25% | Hansa Rostock 32%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 65%, Hansa Rostock 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.27. Form held, and they took the win. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.