SV Darmstadt 98 0-0 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 9 as SV Darmstadt 98 welcome FC St. Pauli to Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor. Kick-off is set for Friday 23 October 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98's home record at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor: 4W 3D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — SV Darmstadt 98 are significantly better at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC St. Pauli stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC St. Pauli's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SV Darmstadt 98 at 0.80 PPG versus FC St. Pauli's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SV Darmstadt 98 register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, FC St. Pauli in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 2, FC St. Pauli 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2023, ended 0–3 with FC St. Pauli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
SV Darmstadt 98 in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
FC St. Pauli in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 60% versus FC St. Pauli 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 60% | FC St. Pauli 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.74 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.023 / defence 1.020 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.941 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.664 / away 1.253. Data: 42 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 8 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 50% | Draw 24% | FC St. Pauli 26%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | FC St. Pauli 3.85. SV Darmstadt 98 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Darmstadt 98 at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: SV Darmstadt 98 60% | FC St. Pauli 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Friday 23 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 50% | Draw 24% | FC St. Pauli 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.74 / FC St. Pauli 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.023 / def 1.020 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.941 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.664 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.20
FC St. Pauli xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 16:30 on Friday 23 October 2026 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli?
SV Darmstadt 98 0 - 0 FC St. Pauli.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 50% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli?
Record (4 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 2W | Draws 1 | FC St. Pauli 1W.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SV Darmstadt 98's attack at 1.02x the league average against FC St. Pauli's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC St. Pauli's attack versus SV Darmstadt 98's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
50%
2.00
24%
4.22
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
2.95
1.20
FC St. Pauli xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
18%
5.70
Win to Nil
15%
6.68
5%
21.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.0 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.20 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SV Darmstadt 98 come into this having played 42 games, going 15W 14D 13L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC St. Pauli sit at 0.88 PPG from 42 outings (8W 13D 21L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Darmstadt 98 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of FC St. Pauli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
SV Darmstadt 98's home form reads 12W 6D 3L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — SV Darmstadt 98 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC St. Pauli have taken 0.62 points per game from 21 outings (2W 7D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 0.95 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 42 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 15W 14D 13L in their last 42 games (1.40 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 8W 13D 21L in their last 42 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or FC St. Pauli away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 2.00 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 23 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Nov 2021, when SV Darmstadt 98 won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SV Darmstadt 98's record when hosting FC St. Pauli specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
SV Darmstadt 98
2
Draws
1
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli?
From 5 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 2, FC St. Pauli have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 23 October 2026, when SV Darmstadt 98 0-0 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 52%, FC St. Pauli 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 43% (FC St. Pauli).
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC St. Pauli in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play FC St. Pauli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 57% of FC St. Pauli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent games and 43% of FC St. Pauli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at SV Darmstadt 98's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 and FC St. Pauli finished level at 0-0 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 9, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.74 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.20 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 fell 1.7 short of their projected output. FC St. Pauli landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.02 / defence 1.02 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.94 / defence 1.02, drawn from 42/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 50% | Draw 24% | FC St. Pauli 26%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 60%, FC St. Pauli 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Darmstadt 98 arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.