SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-0 SV Elversberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SV Elversberg (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SpVgg Greuther Fürth face SV Elversberg.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SV Elversberg make the trip to Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer to face SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Friday 13 March 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer: 2W 4D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SV Elversberg have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SV Elversberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SV Elversberg have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, SV Elversberg are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, SV Elversberg in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 5 meetings, SV Elversberg have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to SpVgg Greuther Fürth's 0, with 2 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 0–6 with SV Elversberg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SV Elversberg have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
SV Elversberg — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 61% versus SV Elversberg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64% | SV Elversberg 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.38 xG and SV Elversberg 2.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.020 / defence 1.312 | SV Elversberg attack 1.167 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.507 / away 1.358. Data: 59 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 59 SV Elversberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24% | Draw 23% | SV Elversberg 53%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4.17 | Draw 4.35 | SV Elversberg 1.89. SV Elversberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 2.08) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SV Elversberg are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SV Elversberg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.46 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% | SV Elversberg 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Friday 13 Mar 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24% | Draw 23% | SV Elversberg 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 66% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.38 / SV Elversberg 2.08 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.020 / def 1.312 | SV Elversberg attack 1.167 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.507 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: SV Elversberg (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
2.08
SV Elversberg xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 13 March 2026 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2 - 0 SV Elversberg.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 24% chance of winning, SV Elversberg a 53% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SV Elversberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Elversberg will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Elversberg?
Record (5 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0W | Draws 2 | SV Elversberg 3W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Elversberg in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. SV Elversberg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack at 1.02x the league average against SV Elversberg's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SV Elversberg's attack (1.17x) against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 2.08.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Elversberg Win
24%
4.12
23%
4.33
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
0 – 2
6.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
3.46
2.08
SV Elversberg xG
4.12
24%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.50
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
13%
7.99
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
3%
32.90
13%
7.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Elversberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 2.08 for SV Elversberg, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SpVgg Greuther Fürth come into this having played 59 games, going 17W 14D 28L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-W. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SV Elversberg sit at 1.78 PPG from 59 outings (30W 15D 14L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for SV Elversberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Elversberg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home form reads 9W 9D 11L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Elversberg have taken 1.76 points per game from 29 outings (14W 9D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Elversberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; SV Elversberg are on 1.85 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
SV Elversberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Elversberg in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 17W 14D 28L in their last 59 games (1.10 PPG), while SV Elversberg have gone 30W 15D 14L in their last 59 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or SV Elversberg away?
SV Elversberg's away record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.24 PPG; SV Elversberg away: 1.76 PPG.
Have SpVgg Greuther Fürth or SV Elversberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, SV Elversberg in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SV Elversberg won 6-0 on 19 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SV Elversberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
2
Draws
3
SV Elversberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Elversberg?
From 6 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 1, SV Elversberg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Elversberg last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-0 SV Elversberg.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Elversberg?
SV Elversberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 66%, SV Elversberg 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) and 48% (SV Elversberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / SV Elversberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play SV Elversberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 55% of SV Elversberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's matches and 48% of SV Elversberg's.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Elversberg tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, SV Elversberg in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over SV Elversberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat SV Elversberg 2-0 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 26, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.38 xG and SV Elversberg 2.08 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. SV Elversberg landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.02 / defence 1.31 against SV Elversberg attack 1.17 / defence 0.90, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24% | Draw 23% | SV Elversberg 53%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a SpVgg Greuther Fürth win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64%, SV Elversberg 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
SV Elversberg's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Elversberg arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.