SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-0 SV Elversberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SV Elversberg make the trip to Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer to face SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 September 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SpVgg Greuther Fürth have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer: 5W 3D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SV Elversberg have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SV Elversberg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SV Elversberg have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in SpVgg Greuther Fürth's favour (1.90 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, SV Elversberg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SpVgg Greuther Fürth lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2024, ended 1–4 with SV Elversberg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
SV Elversberg — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 53% versus SV Elversberg 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 53% | SV Elversberg 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.73 xG and SV Elversberg 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.029 / defence 0.933 | SV Elversberg attack 0.968 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.364. Data: 38 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 38 SV Elversberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 47% | Draw 28% | SV Elversberg 25%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | SV Elversberg 4.00. SpVgg Greuther Fürth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SpVgg Greuther Fürth are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 90% | SV Elversberg 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 47% | Draw 28% | SV Elversberg 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.73 / SV Elversberg 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.029 / def 0.933 | SV Elversberg attack 0.968 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.23
SV Elversberg xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0 - 0 SV Elversberg.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 47% chance of winning, SV Elversberg a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Elversberg will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Elversberg?
Record (2 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0W | Draws 1 | SV Elversberg 1W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Elversberg in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. SV Elversberg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack at 1.03x the league average against SV Elversberg's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SV Elversberg's attack (0.97x) against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
47%
2.12
28%
3.61
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
2.97
1.23
SV Elversberg xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
18%
5.66
Win to Nil
14%
7.28
4%
22.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.0 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Elversberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.23 for SV Elversberg, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SpVgg Greuther Fürth come into this having played 38 games, going 16W 10D 12L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, SV Elversberg sit at 1.26 PPG from 38 outings (13W 9D 16L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for SV Elversberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for SpVgg Greuther Fürth against 1.26 for SV Elversberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home form reads 11W 5D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, SV Elversberg have taken 1.16 points per game from 19 outings (6W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SpVgg Greuther Fürth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; SV Elversberg are on 1.50 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Elversberg in 61%.
Last 38 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Early Season
SV Elversberg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Elversberg in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 16W 10D 12L in their last 38 games (1.53 PPG), while SV Elversberg have gone 13W 9D 16L in their last 38 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or SV Elversberg away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 2.00 PPG; SV Elversberg away: 1.16 PPG.
Have SpVgg Greuther Fürth or SV Elversberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, SV Elversberg in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SV Elversberg won 6-0 on 19 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SV Elversberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
2
Draws
3
SV Elversberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Elversberg?
From 6 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 1, SV Elversberg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Elversberg last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-0 SV Elversberg.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Elversberg?
SV Elversberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 63% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 68% for SV Elversberg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 68% for SV Elversberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / SV Elversberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play SV Elversberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 68% of SV Elversberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Elversberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's matches and 68% of SV Elversberg's.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Elversberg tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, SV Elversberg in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at SpVgg Greuther Fürth's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 5, as SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Elversberg drew 0-0 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.73 xG and SV Elversberg 1.23 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth fell 1.7 short of their projected output. SV Elversberg landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.03 / defence 0.93 against SV Elversberg attack 0.97 / defence 1.10, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 47% | Draw 28% | SV Elversberg 25%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 53%, SV Elversberg 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
SV Elversberg's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.53 PPG, SV Elversberg 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.