SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SpVgg Greuther Fürth host SC Paderborn 07 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 September 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form when playing at home: 0W 5D 5L across 10 games at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. SC Paderborn 07 are 1.80 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
SC Paderborn 07 in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 69% and SC Paderborn 07 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67% | SC Paderborn 07 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.17 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.851 / defence 1.324 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.977 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.334. Data: 8 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 42 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 26% | Draw 24% | SC Paderborn 07 50%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3.85 | Draw 4.17 | SC Paderborn 07 2.00. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Paderborn 07 at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 80% | SC Paderborn 07 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Sep 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 26% | Draw 24% | SC Paderborn 07 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.17 / SC Paderborn 07 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.851 / def 1.324 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.977 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.585 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.73
SC Paderborn 07 xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 18 September 2022 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2 - 1 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 26% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 50% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Paderborn 07?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Paderborn 07 in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against SC Paderborn 07's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
26%
3.91
24%
4.10
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
2.90
1.73
SC Paderborn 07 xG
3.91
26%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
18%
5.62
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
5%
21.95
15%
6.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.5 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.73 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent record stands at 3W 13D 26L from 42 games, a 0.52 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Paderborn 07, meanwhile, have gone 19W 13D 10L across 42 games — 1.67 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Paderborn 07 by 1.15 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SpVgg Greuther Fürth heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have managed 3W 7D 10L from 20 games — 0.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Paderborn 07's away record stands at 10W 6D 4L across 20 trips, a 1.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.90 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 3W 13D 26L in their last 42 games (0.52 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 19W 13D 10L in their last 42 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 0.80 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
SC Paderborn 07 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2023, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's record when hosting SC Paderborn 07 specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1
Draws
3
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Paderborn 07?
From 8 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 4, SC Paderborn 07 have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-2 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Paderborn 07?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 65%, SC Paderborn 07 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) and 60% (SC Paderborn 07). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have failed to score in 30% of games; SC Paderborn 07 in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 55% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's matches and 60% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SpVgg Greuther Fürth defy the odds to beat SC Paderborn 07 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat SC Paderborn 07 2-1 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 9, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.17 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.73 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.85 / defence 1.32 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.98 / defence 0.87, drawn from 8/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 26% | Draw 24% | SC Paderborn 07 50%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual SpVgg Greuther Fürth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67%, SC Paderborn 07 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.52. Form was overturned, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.