SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-0 Rot-Weiß Essen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 55%, yet in-form Rot-Weiß Essen provide a compelling counter-argument — this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Rot-Weiß Essen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SpVgg Greuther Fürth host Rot-Weiß Essen at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in 2. Bundesliga, Final. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 26 May 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are significantly better at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rot-Weiß Essen stand at 1W 0D 0L from 1 2. Bundesliga matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Rot-Weiß Essen have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Rot-Weiß Essen — 1.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (3.00 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 1 for Rot-Weiß Essen and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Rot-Weiß Essen winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.94 xG and Rot-Weiß Essen 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.028 / defence 1.097 | Rot-Weiß Essen attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.643 / away 1.255. Data: 68 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 0 Rot-Weiß Essen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 55% | Draw 24% | Rot-Weiß Essen 22%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Rot-Weiß Essen 4.55. The model has a clear lean to SpVgg Greuther Fürth (55%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rot-Weiß Essen (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Rot-Weiß Essen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Final | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 May 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 55% | Draw 24% | Rot-Weiß Essen 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 60% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.94 / Rot-Weiß Essen 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.028 / def 1.097 | Rot-Weiß Essen attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.643 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Rot-Weiß Essen xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Rot-Weiß Essen kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Rot-Weiß Essen kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 26 May 2026 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Rot-Weiß Essen?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2 - 0 Rot-Weiß Essen.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Rot-Weiß Essen being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Rot-Weiß Essen part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Rot-Weiß Essen is a Final fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Rot-Weiß Essen?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 55% chance of winning, Rot-Weiß Essen a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Rot-Weiß Essen?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Rot-Weiß Essen will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Rot-Weiß Essen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Rot-Weiß Essen?
Record (1 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0W | Draws 0 | Rot-Weiß Essen 1W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Rot-Weiß Essen in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Rot-Weiß Essen (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack rating (1.03) and Rot-Weiß Essen's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rot-Weiß Essen's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
55%
1.83
24%
4.24
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
3.11
1.17
Rot-Weiß Essen xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
14%
6.98
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
3%
31.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.1 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Rot-Weiß Essen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Rot-Weiß Essen expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.17 for Rot-Weiß Essen, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Rot-Weiß Essen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 1 outings, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rot-Weiß Essen's form line: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W. It's still early in the season for Rot-Weiß Essen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Rot-Weiß Essen are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Goals in Recent Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Rot-Weiß Essen are on 1.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Rot-Weiß Essen in 0%.
Defensively: Rot-Weiß Essen in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Early Season
Rot-Weiß Essen
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Rot-Weiß Essen in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Rot-Weiß Essen have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have SpVgg Greuther Fürth or Rot-Weiß Essen been keeping clean sheets recently?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Rot-Weiß Essen in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 26 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
0
Draws
1
Rot-Weiß Essen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Rot-Weiß Essen?
From 2 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 1, Rot-Weiß Essen have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Rot-Weiß Essen last play each other?
They last met on 26 May 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-0 Rot-Weiß Essen.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / Rot-Weiß Essen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play Rot-Weiß Essen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent matches and 0% of Rot-Weiß Essen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Rot-Weiß Essen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent games and 0% of Rot-Weiß Essen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Rot-Weiß Essen tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Rot-Weiß Essen in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Rot-Weiß Essen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat Rot-Weiß Essen 2-0 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Final, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.94 xG and Rot-Weiß Essen 1.17 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Rot-Weiß Essen landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.03 / defence 1.10 against Rot-Weiß Essen attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 68/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 55% | Draw 24% | Rot-Weiß Essen 22%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0%, Rot-Weiß Essen 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Rot-Weiß Essen arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SpVgg Greuther Fürth scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Rot-Weiß Essen managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.