SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-2 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 37%, yet in-form 1. FC Heidenheim provide a compelling counter-argument — this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Heidenheim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer plays host to SpVgg Greuther Fürth versus 1. FC Heidenheim in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Friday 28 April 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are significantly better at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer than their overall form suggests.
1. FC Heidenheim's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
1. FC Heidenheim away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, 1. FC Heidenheim are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SpVgg Greuther Fürth lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2022, ended 1–3 with 1. FC Heidenheim winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
1. FC Heidenheim — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 45% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 68% versus 1. FC Heidenheim 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64% | 1. FC Heidenheim 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.22 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.949 / defence 0.888 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.056 / defence 0.827. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.285. Data: 29 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 63 1. FC Heidenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 37% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Heidenheim 36%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | 1. FC Heidenheim 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SpVgg Greuther Fürth are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form 1. FC Heidenheim (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% | 1. FC Heidenheim 50%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Heidenheim | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Friday 28 Apr 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 37% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Heidenheim 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.22 / 1. FC Heidenheim 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.949 / def 0.888 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.056 / def 0.827 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.20
1. FC Heidenheim xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Heidenheim kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Heidenheim kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 28 April 2023 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0 - 2 1. FC Heidenheim.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Heidenheim being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Heidenheim part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Heidenheim is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 37% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Heidenheim will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Heidenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Heidenheim?
Record (1 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Heidenheim 1W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Heidenheim in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. 1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack at 0.95x the league average against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — 1. FC Heidenheim's attack (1.06x) against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 29/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
37%
2.74
28%
3.63
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
2.42
1.20
1. FC Heidenheim xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
11%
9.12
11%
9.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.7 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.0 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.20 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 63 outings, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 12W 18D 33L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
1. FC Heidenheim's form line: 31W 16D 16L from 63 games, 1.73 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W.
Put side by side, 1. FC Heidenheim are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have posted 1.32 PPG from 31 outings (10W 11D 10L). That's noticeably better than their 0.86 PPG overall — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 10W 9D 12L from 31 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of 1. FC Heidenheim's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.98 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Heidenheim are on 1.62 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Current Season
1. FC Heidenheim
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Heidenheim in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 12W 18D 33L in their last 63 games (0.86 PPG), while 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 31W 16D 16L in their last 63 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or 1. FC Heidenheim away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.32 PPG; 1. FC Heidenheim away: 1.26 PPG.
Have SpVgg Greuther Fürth or 1. FC Heidenheim been keeping clean sheets recently?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, 1. FC Heidenheim in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
0
Draws
2
1. FC Heidenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Heidenheim?
From 2 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 0, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Heidenheim last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2023, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-2 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Heidenheim?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
1. FC Heidenheim see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64%, 1. FC Heidenheim 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) and 45% (1. FC Heidenheim).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / 1. FC Heidenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent matches and 42% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Heidenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent games and 45% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1. FC Heidenheim tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, 1. FC Heidenheim in 45% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Heidenheim cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-2 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 30, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.22 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.20 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.95 / defence 0.89 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.06 / defence 0.83, drawn from 29/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 37% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Heidenheim 36%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual 1. FC Heidenheim win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64%, 1. FC Heidenheim 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Heidenheim arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.86. Form held, and they took the win. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.