SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-0 Eintracht Braunschweig – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SpVgg Greuther Fürth face Eintracht Braunschweig.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Eintracht Braunschweig meet at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 23). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 23 February 2025 at 12:30 UK time.
Current Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Eintracht Braunschweig (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Eintracht Braunschweig's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, SpVgg Greuther Fürth edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2024, ended SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0–2 Eintracht Braunschweig — a Eintracht Braunschweig win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Eintracht Braunschweig — key trading statistics (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 55% versus Eintracht Braunschweig 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57% | Eintracht Braunschweig 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.56 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.953 / defence 1.343 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.792 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.383. Eintracht Braunschweig's attack rating of 0.792 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.47. SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence rating of 1.343 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Eintracht Braunschweig's projected output up. Data: built from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 56 games and Eintracht Braunschweig's last 56.
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 38% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Braunschweig 34%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.61 | Draw 3.67 | Eintracht Braunschweig 2.90. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.56 / 1.47) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SpVgg Greuther Fürth are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 home games and Eintracht Braunschweig's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% (last 10 home games) | Eintracht Braunschweig 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Eintracht Braunschweig | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 23 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Sunday 23 February 2025 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 38% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Braunschweig 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.56 / Eintracht Braunschweig 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.953 / def 1.343 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.792 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Eintracht Braunschweig FAQs
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Eintracht Braunschweig kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Eintracht Braunschweig kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 23 February 2025 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3 - 0 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Eintracht Braunschweig being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Eintracht Braunschweig part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Eintracht Braunschweig is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 23) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 38% chance of winning, Eintracht Braunschweig a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Eintracht Braunschweig will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Eintracht Braunschweig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack rating (0.95) and Eintracht Braunschweig's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Eintracht Braunschweig's attack (0.79x) against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 56 games and Eintracht Braunschweig's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
38%
2.61
27%
3.67
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
3.03
1.47
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
9%
11.36
7%
13.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.1 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Eintracht Braunschweig Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Eintracht Braunschweig expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.47 for Eintracht Braunschweig, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent record stands at 21W 13D 22L from 56 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five.
Eintracht Braunschweig, meanwhile, have gone 16W 11D 29L across 56 games — 1.05 PPG, with D-D-L-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for SpVgg Greuther Fürth against 1.05 for Eintracht Braunschweig. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have managed 14W 6D 8L from their last 28 home games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eintracht Braunschweig's away record stands at 5W 4D 19L across their last 28 away games, a 0.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SpVgg Greuther Fürth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Braunschweig are on 1.04 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (Home) vs Eintracht Braunschweig (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Eintracht Braunschweig Form FAQs
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Eintracht Braunschweig in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 21W 13D 22L in their last 56 games (1.36 PPG), while Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 16W 11D 29L in their last 56 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or Eintracht Braunschweig away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.71 PPG; Eintracht Braunschweig away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SpVgg Greuther Fürth won SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-0 Eintracht Braunschweig on 23 Feb 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 2W 3D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Eintracht Braunschweig — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
3
Draws
2
Eintracht Braunschweig
Recent Meetings
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Eintracht Braunschweig H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 4, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Eintracht Braunschweig last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-0 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Eintracht Braunschweig?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64%, Eintracht Braunschweig 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 61% for Eintracht Braunschweig. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Eintracht Braunschweig in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / Eintracht Braunschweig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Eintracht Braunschweig Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Eintracht Braunschweig matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 46% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Eintracht Braunschweig matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's matches and 61% of Eintracht Braunschweig's.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Eintracht Braunschweig matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent matches and 82% of Eintracht Braunschweig's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SpVgg Greuther Fürth run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Eintracht Braunschweig.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat Eintracht Braunschweig 3-0 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 23, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.56 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.47 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Eintracht Braunschweig landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.95 / defence 1.34 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.79 / defence 1.12, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 38% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Braunschweig 34%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57%, Eintracht Braunschweig 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.36 PPG, Eintracht Braunschweig 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SpVgg Greuther Fürth win broke the near-deadlock. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More 2. Bundesliga fixtures — matchday 23
All 2. Bundesliga fixtures →
More German football predictions →