SC Paderborn 07 1-1 SV Elversberg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates SV Elversberg at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SC Paderborn 07 face SV Elversberg.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 host SV Elversberg at Home Deluxe Arena in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 31). Kick-off is Saturday 26 April 2025 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Guide
SC Paderborn 07 — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SC Paderborn 07's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, SV Elversberg stand at 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
SV Elversberg's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SC Paderborn 07 at 1.70 PPG versus SV Elversberg's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, SC Paderborn 07 have won 2, SV Elversberg 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 30 Nov 2024, ended SC Paderborn 07 3–1 SV Elversberg — a SC Paderborn 07 win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
SC Paderborn 07 in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
SV Elversberg in-play and half-time data (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 70% and SV Elversberg 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Paderborn 07 69% | SV Elversberg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.05 xG and SV Elversberg 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.112 / defence 1.209 | SV Elversberg attack 1.061 / defence 0.639. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.252. SV Elversberg bring a tight defence (rating 0.639, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling SC Paderborn 07's projected output down. SC Paderborn 07's defence rating of 1.209 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SV Elversberg's projected output up. Data: built from SC Paderborn 07's last 64 games and SV Elversberg's last 64.
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 24% | Draw 27% | SV Elversberg 49%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 4.19 | Draw 3.73 | SV Elversberg 2.03. SV Elversberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SV Elversberg as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Elversberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SC Paderborn 07 80% (last 10 home games) | SV Elversberg 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 31 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 26 April 2025 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 24% | Draw 27% | SV Elversberg 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.05 / SV Elversberg 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.112 / def 1.209 | SV Elversberg attack 1.061 / def 0.639 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: SV Elversberg (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.61
SV Elversberg xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg FAQs
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 26 April 2025 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg?
SC Paderborn 07 1 - 1 SV Elversberg.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 31) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 24% chance of winning, SV Elversberg a 49% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SV Elversberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SC Paderborn 07's attack at 1.11x the league average against SV Elversberg's defence at 0.64x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SV Elversberg's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SC Paderborn 07's last 64 games and SV Elversberg's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Elversberg Win
24%
4.19
27%
3.73
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
2.66
1.61
SV Elversberg xG
4.19
24%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
20%
4.98
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
5%
20.87
17%
5.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 11.3 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.61 for SV Elversberg, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 64 outings, SC Paderborn 07 have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 28W 16D 20L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
SV Elversberg's form line: 25W 16D 23L from 64 games, 1.42 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Paderborn 07 on 1.56 PPG, SV Elversberg on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 1.52 PPG from their last 31 home games (14W 5D 12L).
On the road, SV Elversberg have gone 11W 9D 11L from their last 31 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; SV Elversberg are on 1.62 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Current Season
SV Elversberg
Current Season
SC Paderborn 07 (Home) vs SV Elversberg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SC Paderborn 07
Current Season
SV Elversberg
Current Season
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg Form FAQs
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 28W 16D 20L in their last 64 games (1.56 PPG), while SV Elversberg have gone 25W 16D 23L in their last 64 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or SV Elversberg away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.52 PPG; SV Elversberg away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from November 2023. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 3 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
SV Elversberg have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 May 2026, when SV Elversberg won SV Elversberg 5-1 SC Paderborn 07.
SC Paderborn 07's record when hosting SV Elversberg specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
SC Paderborn 07
1
Draws
3
SV Elversberg
Recent Meetings
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, SC Paderborn 07 have won 2, SV Elversberg have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 May 2026: SV Elversberg 5-1 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg?
SV Elversberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 64%, SV Elversberg 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for SC Paderborn 07 and 55% for SV Elversberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / SV Elversberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 55% of SV Elversberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 55% of SV Elversberg's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of SC Paderborn 07's recent matches and 68% of SV Elversberg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg finished level at 1-1 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 31, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.05 xG and SV Elversberg 1.61 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.11 / defence 1.21 against SV Elversberg attack 1.06 / defence 0.64, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 24% | Draw 27% | SV Elversberg 49%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 69%, SV Elversberg 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
SV Elversberg's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.56 PPG, SV Elversberg 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More 2. Bundesliga fixtures — matchday 31
All 2. Bundesliga fixtures →
More German football predictions →