SC Paderborn 07 3-1 SV Elversberg – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates SV Elversberg at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SC Paderborn 07 face SV Elversberg.

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Match Analysis

SC Paderborn 07 host SV Elversberg at Home Deluxe Arena in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 31). Kick-off is Saturday 27 April 2024 at 13:00 UK time.

Form Guide

SC Paderborn 07 — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

SC Paderborn 07's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Looking at their last 10 matches, SV Elversberg stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

SV Elversberg's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — SC Paderborn 07 at 1.20 PPG versus SV Elversberg's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, SC Paderborn 07 have won 0, SV Elversberg 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended SC Paderborn 07 1–4 SV Elversberg — a SV Elversberg win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

SC Paderborn 07 in-play and half-time data (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

SV Elversberg in-play and half-time data (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 70% and SV Elversberg 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Paderborn 07 73% | SV Elversberg 63%). Note also that SV Elversberg surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while SC Paderborn 07 recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.89 xG and SV Elversberg 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.941 / defence 1.204 | SV Elversberg attack 1.167 / defence 1.357. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.348. SV Elversberg's defence rating of 1.357 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SC Paderborn 07's projected output up. SC Paderborn 07's defence rating of 1.204 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SV Elversberg's projected output up. Data: built from SC Paderborn 07's last 64 games and SV Elversberg's last 30.

Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 39% | Draw 22% | SV Elversberg 39%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.58 | Draw 4.45 | SV Elversberg 2.58. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 39% to win, with the draw at 22%. There is no result lean here.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS Yes probability 73% | Total xG 3.79. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.79 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% — both xG figures (1.89 / 1.90) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

The Poisson model can't separate the sides — SC Paderborn 07 39% and SV Elversberg 39%, with the draw at 22%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.79 combined xG gives a 73% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SC Paderborn 07's last 10 home games and SV Elversberg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SC Paderborn 07 50% (last 10 home games) | SV Elversberg 80% (last 10 away games).

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