SC Paderborn 07 1-2 SV Darmstadt 98 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Home Deluxe Arena plays host to SC Paderborn 07 versus SV Darmstadt 98 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Friday 30 September 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SC Paderborn 07 have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W D W W L. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 7W 3D 0L at Home Deluxe Arena — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Home Deluxe Arena. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — SC Paderborn 07 are significantly better at Home Deluxe Arena than their overall form suggests.
SV Darmstadt 98's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W D D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 2.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: SC Paderborn 07 0W, SV Darmstadt 98 2W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2022, ended 0–3 with SV Darmstadt 98 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
SC Paderborn 07 half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
SV Darmstadt 98 half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Paderborn 07 60% versus SV Darmstadt 98 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 63% | SV Darmstadt 98 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 2.46 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.536 / defence 0.806 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.090 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.610 / away 1.320. SC Paderborn 07 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.536 — their λ of 2.46 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 43 SC Paderborn 07 games / 43 SV Darmstadt 98 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 66% | Draw 18% | SV Darmstadt 98 16%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 1.52 | Draw 5.56 | SV Darmstadt 98 6.25. The model has a clear lean to SC Paderborn 07 (66%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.46 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 as the most likely outcome at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.62 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 50% | SV Darmstadt 98 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Friday 30 Sep 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 66% | Draw 18% | SV Darmstadt 98 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 63% | xG SC Paderborn 07 2.46 / SV Darmstadt 98 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.536 / def 0.806 | SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.090 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.610 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.46
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.16
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
63%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98 kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98 kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 30 September 2022 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
SC Paderborn 07 1 - 2 SV Darmstadt 98.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98 being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98 part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98 is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 66% chance of winning, SV Darmstadt 98 a 16% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and SV Darmstadt 98 will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and SV Darmstadt 98?
Record (2 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 0W | Draws 0 | SV Darmstadt 98 2W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and SV Darmstadt 98 in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SC Paderborn 07's attack rating (1.54) and SV Darmstadt 98's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 2.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SV Darmstadt 98's attack (1.09x) against SC Paderborn 07's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.6%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
66%
1.52
18%
5.44
16%
6.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
3 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.46
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
3.62
1.16
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
1.52
66%
Home win
5.44
18%
Draw
6.25
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
9%
11.69
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
1%
73.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and SV Darmstadt 98 expected to score?
The model projects 2.46 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.16 for SV Darmstadt 98, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SC Paderborn 07 come into this having played 43 games, going 19W 13D 11L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SV Darmstadt 98 sit at 1.81 PPG from 43 outings (23W 9D 11L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for SC Paderborn 07 against 1.81 for SV Darmstadt 98. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
SC Paderborn 07's home form reads 9W 6D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Darmstadt 98 have taken 1.62 points per game from 21 outings (10W 4D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; SV Darmstadt 98 are on 2.05 scored and 1.30 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and SV Darmstadt 98 in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 19W 13D 11L in their last 43 games (1.63 PPG), while SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 23W 9D 11L in their last 43 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or SV Darmstadt 98 away?
SV Darmstadt 98's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.57 PPG; SV Darmstadt 98 away: 1.62 PPG.
Have SC Paderborn 07 or SV Darmstadt 98 been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, SV Darmstadt 98 in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SV Darmstadt 98 won 3-0 on 15 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against SV Darmstadt 98 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
SC Paderborn 07
1
Draws
4
SV Darmstadt 98
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and SV Darmstadt 98?
From 8 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 3, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and SV Darmstadt 98 last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when SV Darmstadt 98 0-2 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and SV Darmstadt 98?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 62%, SV Darmstadt 98 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for SC Paderborn 07 and 62% for SV Darmstadt 98. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / SV Darmstadt 98 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play SV Darmstadt 98?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 62% of SV Darmstadt 98's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Darmstadt 98 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 62% of SV Darmstadt 98's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and SV Darmstadt 98 tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, SV Darmstadt 98 in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SV Darmstadt 98 defy the odds to beat SC Paderborn 07 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat SC Paderborn 07 1-2 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 2.46 xG and SV Darmstadt 98 1.16 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 fell 1.5 short of their projected output. SV Darmstadt 98 outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.54 / defence 0.81 against SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.09 / defence 0.99, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 66% | Draw 18% | SV Darmstadt 98 16%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a SV Darmstadt 98 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 63%, SV Darmstadt 98 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.63 PPG, SV Darmstadt 98 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Darmstadt 98 win broke the near-deadlock. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.