SC Paderborn 07 2-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 host SpVgg Greuther Fürth at Home Deluxe Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 November 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Paderborn 07 stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07's home record at Home Deluxe Arena: 6W 1D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.80. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
SC Paderborn 07 are in the better shape of the two on current 2. Bundesliga data — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour SpVgg Greuther Fürth, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for SC Paderborn 07.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2025, ended 1–2 with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
SC Paderborn 07 trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
SpVgg Greuther Fürth trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 66% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 59% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 2.53 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.166 / defence 0.993 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.056 / defence 1.470. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.407. SpVgg Greuther Fürth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.470 — this is suppressing SC Paderborn 07's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 SC Paderborn 07 games / 44 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 60% | Draw 18% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 21%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 1.67 | Draw 5.56 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4.76. The model has a clear lean to SC Paderborn 07 (60%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 4.00. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.00 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.53 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
SpVgg Greuther Fürth lead the H2H ledger, but SC Paderborn 07 carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.00 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 71% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 80% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Nov 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 60% | Draw 18% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 71% | xG SC Paderborn 07 2.53 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.166 / def 0.993 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.056 / def 1.470 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.407 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.53
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.48
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
71%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 2 November 2025 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SC Paderborn 07 2 - 1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 60% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 21% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (6 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 1W | Draws 1 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SC Paderborn 07's attack at 1.17x the league average against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence at 1.47x — combine the two and it projects 2.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (7.7%), 3-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
60%
1.66
18%
5.45
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.2%
Home win
1 – 1
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.53
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
4.00
1.48
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
1.66
60%
Home win
5.45
18%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.44
Clean Sheet
23%
4.37
8%
12.50
Win to Nil
14%
7.24
2%
58.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 7.2 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 2.53 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.48 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 4.00.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 44 outings, SC Paderborn 07 have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 22W 12D 10L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form line: 13W 10D 21L from 44 games, 1.11 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-L. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SC Paderborn 07 are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 1.77 PPG from 22 outings (12W 3D 7L).
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 6W 4D 12L from 22 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.39 scored and 1.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 22W 12D 10L in their last 44 games (1.77 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 13W 10D 21L in their last 44 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.77 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Paderborn 07 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
SC Paderborn 07 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2023, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Paderborn 07's record when hosting SpVgg Greuther Fürth specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
SC Paderborn 07
1
Draws
4
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 8 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 3, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-2 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 68%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for SC Paderborn 07 and 59% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Paderborn 07 keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 50% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 59% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Paderborn 07 edge out SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 2.53 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.48 xG, a combined 4.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.17 / defence 0.99 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.06 / defence 1.47, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 60% | Draw 18% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 21%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 59%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.11. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.