SC Paderborn 07 3-0 Hannover 96 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hannover 96 at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Hannover 96 travel to Benteler-Arena to take on SC Paderborn 07. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 April 2022, 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SC Paderborn 07 — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SC Paderborn 07's home record at Benteler-Arena: 1W 5D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Benteler-Arena this season.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hannover 96 have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hannover 96's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SC Paderborn 07 1.40 PPG, Hannover 96 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for SC Paderborn 07, 0 for Hannover 96 and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Nov 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
SC Paderborn 07 trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Hannover 96 trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Paderborn 07 70% versus Hannover 96 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 60% | Hannover 96 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.45 xG and Hannover 96 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.982 / defence 1.307 | Hannover 96 attack 0.878 / defence 1.317. League average goals — home 1.124 / away 1.441. Hannover 96 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.317 — this is suppressing SC Paderborn 07's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 SC Paderborn 07 games / 30 Hannover 96 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 31% | Draw 29% | Hannover 96 40%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Hannover 96 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hannover 96 as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hannover 96 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 80% | Hannover 96 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Benteler-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Apr 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 31% | Draw 29% | Hannover 96 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 64% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.45 / Hannover 96 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.982 / def 1.307 | Hannover 96 attack 0.878 / def 1.317 | league avg home 1.124 / away 1.441 • Poisson stance: Hannover 96 (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Hannover 96 xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 24 April 2022 at Benteler-Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96?
SC Paderborn 07 3 - 0 Hannover 96.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 being played?
The match is being played at Benteler-Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 31% chance of winning, Hannover 96 a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hannover 96 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96 will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96?
Record (1 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 0W | Draws 1 | Hannover 96 0W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96 in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Hannover 96 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SC Paderborn 07's attack at 0.98x the league average against Hannover 96's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hannover 96's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hannover 96 Win
31%
3.19
29%
3.49
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
3.11
1.65
Hannover 96 xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
19%
5.23
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
6%
16.68
9%
10.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.4 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.8 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96 expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.65 for Hannover 96, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 30 outings, SC Paderborn 07 have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 11W 11D 8L record — D-L-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Hannover 96's form line: 9W 9D 12L from 30 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Paderborn 07 on 1.47 PPG, Hannover 96 on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 0.87 PPG from 15 outings (2W 7D 6L). That actually lags their 1.47 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Hannover 96 have gone 5W 3D 7L from 15 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Hannover 96 are on 0.97 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Defensively: Hannover 96 in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Current Season
Hannover 96
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96 in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 11W 11D 8L in their last 30 games (1.47 PPG), while Hannover 96 have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or Hannover 96 away?
Hannover 96's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 0.87 PPG; Hannover 96 away: 1.20 PPG.
Have SC Paderborn 07 or Hannover 96 been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Hannover 96 in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96 runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Apr 2022, when SC Paderborn 07 won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Paderborn 07's record when hosting Hannover 96 specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
SC Paderborn 07
3
Draws
2
Hannover 96
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 5, Hannover 96 have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96 last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Hannover 96 1-1 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Hannover 96 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SC Paderborn 07 at 80%, Hannover 96 at 53%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for SC Paderborn 07 and 67% for Hannover 96. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hannover 96 in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / Hannover 96 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play Hannover 96?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 53% of Hannover 96's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs Hannover 96 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 67% of Hannover 96's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and Hannover 96 tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Hannover 96 in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SC Paderborn 07 run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Hannover 96.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat Hannover 96 3-0 at Benteler-Arena, Regular Season - 31, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.45 xG and Hannover 96 1.65 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hannover 96 landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.98 / defence 1.31 against Hannover 96 attack 0.88 / defence 1.32, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 31% | Draw 29% | Hannover 96 40%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual SC Paderborn 07 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 60%, Hannover 96 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Hannover 96's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.47 PPG, Hannover 96 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Paderborn 07 win broke the near-deadlock. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.