SC Paderborn 07 1-2 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hamburger SV at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hamburger SV make the trip to Benteler-Arena to face SC Paderborn 07 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Friday 22 October 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
SC Paderborn 07's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 2L across 5 games at Benteler-Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Benteler-Arena this season.
Hamburger SV have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: W W D D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hamburger SV away from home this season: 2W 2D 1L from 5 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Hamburger SV in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
SC Paderborn 07 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Hamburger SV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 70% and Hamburger SV 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 70% | Hamburger SV 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.06 xG and Hamburger SV 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.980 / defence 1.118 | Hamburger SV attack 0.890 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.085 / away 1.437. Data: 10 SC Paderborn 07 games / 10 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 24% | Draw 34% | Hamburger SV 42%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 4.17 | Draw 2.94 | Hamburger SV 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hamburger SV as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 80% | Hamburger SV 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Benteler-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 22 Oct 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 24% | Draw 34% | Hamburger SV 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 54% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.06 / Hamburger SV 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.980 / def 1.118 | Hamburger SV attack 0.890 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.085 / away 1.437 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Hamburger SV xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 22 October 2021 at Benteler-Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV?
SC Paderborn 07 1 - 2 Hamburger SV.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Benteler-Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 24% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 42% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Hamburger SV (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SC Paderborn 07's attack at 0.98x the league average against Hamburger SV's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hamburger SV's attack (0.89x) against SC Paderborn 07's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
24%
4.11
34%
2.94
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
2.49
1.43
Hamburger SV xG
4.11
24%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
6%
17.16
14%
6.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.8 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.43 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 10 outings, SC Paderborn 07 have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 5W 3D 2L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hamburger SV's form line: 3W 6D 1L from 10 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-D. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.80 PPG for SC Paderborn 07 against 1.50 for Hamburger SV. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 1.00 PPG from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L). That actually lags their 1.80 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Hamburger SV have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Hamburger SV in 80%.
Last 10 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
Hamburger SV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 games (1.80 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 3W 6D 1L in their last 10 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or Hamburger SV away?
Hamburger SV's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.00 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hamburger SV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
SC Paderborn 07
2
Draws
2
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV?
From 8 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 4, Hamburger SV have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when SC Paderborn 07 2-0 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for SC Paderborn 07, 60% for Hamburger SV — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (SC Paderborn 07) and 40% (Hamburger SV).
On the defensive side: Hamburger SV in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play Hamburger SV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 60% of Hamburger SV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of SC Paderborn 07's recent games and 40% of Hamburger SV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and Hamburger SV tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Hamburger SV in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hamburger SV edge out SC Paderborn 07 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat SC Paderborn 07 1-2 at Benteler-Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.06 xG and Hamburger SV 1.43 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.98 / defence 1.12 against Hamburger SV attack 0.89 / defence 1.00, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 24% | Draw 34% | Hamburger SV 42%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 70%, Hamburger SV 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.80 PPG, Hamburger SV 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hamburger SV win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.