SC Paderborn 07 3-2 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 46%, yet in-form 1. FC Heidenheim provide a compelling counter-argument — this SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Heidenheim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees 1. FC Heidenheim travel to Home Deluxe Arena to take on SC Paderborn 07. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 May 2023, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Paderborn 07 stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SC Paderborn 07's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 games at Home Deluxe Arena this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — SC Paderborn 07 are significantly better at Home Deluxe Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Heidenheim have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
1. FC Heidenheim away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. 1. FC Heidenheim's 2.10 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of SC Paderborn 07's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for SC Paderborn 07, 2 for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 0–3 with 1. FC Heidenheim winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
SC Paderborn 07 trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
1. FC Heidenheim trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Paderborn 07 58% versus 1. FC Heidenheim 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 65% | 1. FC Heidenheim 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.70 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.453 / defence 0.930 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.097 / defence 0.754. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.313. SC Paderborn 07 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.453 — their λ of 1.70 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. 1. FC Heidenheim's defence strength of 0.754 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 65 SC Paderborn 07 games / 65 1. FC Heidenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 46% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Heidenheim 30%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | 1. FC Heidenheim 3.33. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form 1. FC Heidenheim (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 60% | 1. FC Heidenheim 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Heidenheim | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 46% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Heidenheim 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.70 / 1. FC Heidenheim 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.453 / def 0.930 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.097 / def 0.754 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.34
1. FC Heidenheim xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Heidenheim kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Heidenheim kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
SC Paderborn 07 3 - 2 1. FC Heidenheim.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Heidenheim being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Heidenheim part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Heidenheim is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 46% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Heidenheim will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Heidenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Heidenheim?
Record (3 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 0W | Draws 1 | 1. FC Heidenheim 2W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Heidenheim in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. 1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SC Paderborn 07's attacking strength (1.45x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Heidenheim's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Heidenheim's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
46%
2.18
24%
4.20
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
3.04
1.34
1. FC Heidenheim xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
18%
5.46
Win to Nil
12%
8.32
6%
18.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.34 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, SC Paderborn 07 have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 28W 18D 19L record — L-W-D-W-D across the most recent five.
1. FC Heidenheim's form line: 32W 17D 16L from 65 games, 1.74 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Paderborn 07 on 1.57 PPG, 1. FC Heidenheim on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 1.62 PPG from 32 outings (15W 7D 10L).
On the road, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 11W 9D 12L from 32 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.74 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of 1. FC Heidenheim's season.
Goals in Recent Form
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Heidenheim are on 1.60 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 65 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Current Season
1. FC Heidenheim
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Heidenheim in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 28W 18D 19L in their last 65 games (1.57 PPG), while 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 32W 17D 16L in their last 65 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or 1. FC Heidenheim away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.62 PPG; 1. FC Heidenheim away: 1.31 PPG.
Have SC Paderborn 07 or 1. FC Heidenheim been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, 1. FC Heidenheim in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Nov 2022, when 1. FC Heidenheim won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Paderborn 07's record when hosting 1. FC Heidenheim specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
SC Paderborn 07
1
Draws
2
1. FC Heidenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Heidenheim?
From 4 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 1, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Heidenheim last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2023, when SC Paderborn 07 3-2 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Heidenheim?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
1. FC Heidenheim see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 62%, 1. FC Heidenheim 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (SC Paderborn 07) and 44% (1. FC Heidenheim). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim in 31%; 1. FC Heidenheim in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / 1. FC Heidenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of SC Paderborn 07's recent matches and 41% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs 1. FC Heidenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 44% of 1. FC Heidenheim's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and 1. FC Heidenheim tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, 1. FC Heidenheim in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SC Paderborn 07 edge out 1. FC Heidenheim 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat 1. FC Heidenheim 3-2 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 32, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.70 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.34 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.45 / defence 0.93 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.10 / defence 0.75, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 46% | Draw 24% | 1. FC Heidenheim 30%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 65%, 1. FC Heidenheim 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.57 PPG, 1. FC Heidenheim 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Paderborn 07 win broke the near-deadlock. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.16 average — above their attacking norm. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.