Karlsruher SC 0-1 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Karlsruher SC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Karlsruher SC vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
BBBank Wildpark plays host to Karlsruher SC versus SC Paderborn 07 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Friday 27 January 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Karlsruher SC's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Karlsruher SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Karlsruher SC at BBBank Wildpark this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SC Paderborn 07 (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Karlsruher SC 0W, SC Paderborn 07 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jul 2022, ended 0–5 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Karlsruher SC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
SC Paderborn 07 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karlsruher SC 63% versus SC Paderborn 07 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Karlsruher SC 67% | SC Paderborn 07 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karlsruher SC 1.60 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karlsruher SC attack 1.094 / defence 1.287 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.907 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.302. Data: 51 Karlsruher SC games / 51 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karlsruher SC 39% | Draw 25% | SC Paderborn 07 36%. Fair-value odds: Karlsruher SC 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | SC Paderborn 07 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Karlsruher SC as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Karlsruher SC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Karlsruher SC 60% | SC Paderborn 07 40%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karlsruher SC vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: BBBank Wildpark • Kick-off: Friday 27 Jan 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karlsruher SC 39% | Draw 25% | SC Paderborn 07 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Karlsruher SC 1.60 / SC Paderborn 07 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Karlsruher SC attack 1.094 / def 1.287 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.907 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Karlsruher SC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Karlsruher SC xG
Expected Goals
1.52
SC Paderborn 07 xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karlsruher SC vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
Karlsruher SC vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 27 January 2023 at BBBank Wildpark.
What was the final score in Karlsruher SC vs SC Paderborn 07?
Karlsruher SC 0 - 1 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is Karlsruher SC vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at BBBank Wildpark.
What competition is Karlsruher SC vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
Karlsruher SC vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Karlsruher SC vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives Karlsruher SC a 39% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Karlsruher SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karlsruher SC vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Karlsruher SC and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will Karlsruher SC vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karlsruher SC and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (3 meetings): Karlsruher SC 0W | Draws 1 | SC Paderborn 07 2W.
What form are Karlsruher SC and SC Paderborn 07 in?
Karlsruher SC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Karlsruher SC's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against SC Paderborn 07's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. Flip it around — SC Paderborn 07's attack (0.91x) against Karlsruher SC's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Karlsruher SC Win
39%
2.56
25%
3.98
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Karlsruher SC xG
Total xG
3.12
1.52
SC Paderborn 07 xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
20%
4.94
Win to Nil
9%
11.71
7%
13.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.7 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karlsruher SC vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Karlsruher SC and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Karlsruher SC and 1.52 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Karlsruher SC vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Karlsruher SC's recent record stands at 14W 17D 20L from 51 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Karlsruher SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Paderborn 07, meanwhile, have gone 21W 14D 16L across 51 games — 1.51 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Karlsruher SC against 1.51 for SC Paderborn 07. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Karlsruher SC have managed 7W 11D 7L from 25 games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Paderborn 07's away record stands at 11W 7D 7L across 25 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Karlsruher SC are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.78 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karlsruher SC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 51 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karlsruher SC
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karlsruher SC and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
Karlsruher SC have gone 14W 17D 20L in their last 51 games (1.16 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 21W 14D 16L in their last 51 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karlsruher SC at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karlsruher SC at home: 1.28 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 8 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Paderborn 07 won 5-0 on 17 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Karlsruher SC have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SC Paderborn 07 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Karlsruher SC
3
Draws
5
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karlsruher SC and SC Paderborn 07?
From 10 meetings on record, Karlsruher SC have won 2, SC Paderborn 07 have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Karlsruher SC and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 2-2 Karlsruher SC.
Who has won more matches between Karlsruher SC and SC Paderborn 07?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Karlsruher SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karlsruher SC 72%, SC Paderborn 07 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Karlsruher SC and 64% for SC Paderborn 07. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Paderborn 07 in 32%; SC Paderborn 07 in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karlsruher SC home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karlsruher SC play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Karlsruher SC's games and 52% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Karlsruher SC vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Karlsruher SC's matches and 64% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do Karlsruher SC and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
Karlsruher SC have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SC Paderborn 07 defy the odds to beat Karlsruher SC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat Karlsruher SC 0-1 at BBBank Wildpark, Regular Season - 18, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karlsruher SC 1.60 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.52 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Karlsruher SC fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karlsruher SC attack 1.09 / defence 1.29 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.91 / defence 1.01, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karlsruher SC 39% | Draw 25% | SC Paderborn 07 36%, with Karlsruher SC to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual SC Paderborn 07 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karlsruher SC 67%, SC Paderborn 07 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karlsruher SC's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karlsruher SC 1.16 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Paderborn 07 win broke the near-deadlock. Karlsruher SC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.