Karlsruher SC 1-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Karlsruher SC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Karlsruher SC vs SSV Jahn Regensburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SSV Jahn Regensburg make the trip to BBBank Wildpark to face Karlsruher SC in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Friday 24 February 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Karlsruher SC have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Karlsruher SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Karlsruher SC have posted 4W 2D 4L at BBBank Wildpark — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Karlsruher SC are significantly better at BBBank Wildpark than their overall form suggests.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Karlsruher SC against 0.80 for SSV Jahn Regensburg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Karlsruher SC, 0 for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 6–0 with Karlsruher SC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Karlsruher SC — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
SSV Jahn Regensburg — key trading statistics (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karlsruher SC 62% versus SSV Jahn Regensburg 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karlsruher SC 66% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karlsruher SC 1.63 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karlsruher SC attack 0.976 / defence 1.145 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.840 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.455 / away 1.333. Data: 55 Karlsruher SC games / 55 SSV Jahn Regensburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karlsruher SC 46% | Draw 24% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 30%. Fair-value odds: Karlsruher SC 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 3.33. Karlsruher SC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Karlsruher SC are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Karlsruher SC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Karlsruher SC 50% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karlsruher SC vs SSV Jahn Regensburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: BBBank Wildpark • Kick-off: Friday 24 Feb 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karlsruher SC 46% | Draw 24% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Karlsruher SC 1.63 / SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Karlsruher SC attack 0.976 / def 1.145 | SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.840 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.455 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Karlsruher SC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Karlsruher SC xG
Expected Goals
1.28
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karlsruher SC vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kick off?
Karlsruher SC vs SSV Jahn Regensburg kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 24 February 2023 at BBBank Wildpark.
What was the final score in Karlsruher SC vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Karlsruher SC 1 - 0 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Where is Karlsruher SC vs SSV Jahn Regensburg being played?
The match is being played at BBBank Wildpark.
What competition is Karlsruher SC vs SSV Jahn Regensburg part of?
Karlsruher SC vs SSV Jahn Regensburg is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Karlsruher SC vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our statistical model gives Karlsruher SC a 46% chance of winning, SSV Jahn Regensburg a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Karlsruher SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karlsruher SC vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Karlsruher SC and SSV Jahn Regensburg will score (BTTS).
Will Karlsruher SC vs SSV Jahn Regensburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karlsruher SC and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Record (3 meetings): Karlsruher SC 1W | Draws 2 | SSV Jahn Regensburg 0W.
What form are Karlsruher SC and SSV Jahn Regensburg in?
Karlsruher SC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Karlsruher SC's attack at 0.98x the league average against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack (0.84x) against Karlsruher SC's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Karlsruher SC Win
46%
2.19
24%
4.11
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Karlsruher SC xG
Total xG
2.91
1.28
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
2.19
46%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
13%
7.91
6%
16.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.4 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karlsruher SC vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Karlsruher SC and SSV Jahn Regensburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Karlsruher SC and 1.28 for SSV Jahn Regensburg, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Karlsruher SC vs SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Karlsruher SC come into this having played 55 games, going 16W 18D 21L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-W. The sample for Karlsruher SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SSV Jahn Regensburg sit at 1.09 PPG from 55 outings (15W 15D 25L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Karlsruher SC against 1.09 for SSV Jahn Regensburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Karlsruher SC's home form reads 8W 11D 8L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, SSV Jahn Regensburg have taken 0.89 points per game from 27 outings (6W 6D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Karlsruher SC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Karlsruher SC are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; SSV Jahn Regensburg are on 1.31 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karlsruher SC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karlsruher SC
Blended
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karlsruher SC and SSV Jahn Regensburg in coming into this match?
Karlsruher SC have gone 16W 18D 21L in their last 55 games (1.20 PPG), while SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 15W 15D 25L in their last 55 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karlsruher SC at home or SSV Jahn Regensburg away?
Karlsruher SC's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karlsruher SC at home: 1.30 PPG; SSV Jahn Regensburg away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Karlsruher SC won 0-6 on 20 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Karlsruher SC have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SSV Jahn Regensburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Karlsruher SC
3
Draws
0
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karlsruher SC and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
From 6 meetings on record, Karlsruher SC have won 3, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Karlsruher SC and SSV Jahn Regensburg last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2025, when SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-2 Karlsruher SC.
Who has won more matches between Karlsruher SC and SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Karlsruher SC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Karlsruher SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karlsruher SC 70%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Karlsruher SC) and 44% (SSV Jahn Regensburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SSV Jahn Regensburg in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karlsruher SC home games / SSV Jahn Regensburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karlsruher SC play SSV Jahn Regensburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 70% of Karlsruher SC's recent matches and 37% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Karlsruher SC vs SSV Jahn Regensburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Karlsruher SC's matches and 44% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's.
Do Karlsruher SC and SSV Jahn Regensburg tend to score early?
Karlsruher SC have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, SSV Jahn Regensburg in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Karlsruher SC edge out SSV Jahn Regensburg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karlsruher SC beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 1-0 at BBBank Wildpark, Regular Season - 22, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karlsruher SC 1.63 xG and SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.28 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SSV Jahn Regensburg landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karlsruher SC attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.84 / defence 1.15, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karlsruher SC 46% | Draw 24% | SSV Jahn Regensburg 30%, with Karlsruher SC to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karlsruher SC 66%, SSV Jahn Regensburg 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karlsruher SC's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karlsruher SC 1.20 PPG, SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karlsruher SC win broke the near-deadlock. Karlsruher SC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.