Karlsruher SC 2-2 FC Ingolstadt 04 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Karlsruher SC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Karlsruher SC vs FC Ingolstadt 04 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees FC Ingolstadt 04 travel to BBBank Wildpark to take on Karlsruher SC. The game is scheduled for Friday 22 April 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Karlsruher SC have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at BBBank Wildpark, Karlsruher SC have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Ingolstadt 04 — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
FC Ingolstadt 04 away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Karlsruher SC) versus 0.90 (FC Ingolstadt 04). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Karlsruher SC, 0 for FC Ingolstadt 04 and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Karlsruher SC in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
FC Ingolstadt 04 in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Karlsruher SC 73% and FC Ingolstadt 04 47% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Karlsruher SC 73% | FC Ingolstadt 04 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karlsruher SC 1.68 xG and FC Ingolstadt 04 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karlsruher SC attack 1.170 / defence 1.229 | FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.746 / defence 1.267. League average goals — home 1.130 / away 1.365. FC Ingolstadt 04 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.267 — this is suppressing Karlsruher SC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Karlsruher SC games / 30 FC Ingolstadt 04 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karlsruher SC 45% | Draw 29% | FC Ingolstadt 04 26%. Fair-value odds: Karlsruher SC 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | FC Ingolstadt 04 3.85. Karlsruher SC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Karlsruher SC are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Karlsruher SC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Karlsruher SC 80% | FC Ingolstadt 04 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karlsruher SC vs FC Ingolstadt 04 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: BBBank Wildpark • Kick-off: Friday 22 Apr 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karlsruher SC 45% | Draw 29% | FC Ingolstadt 04 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Karlsruher SC 1.68 / FC Ingolstadt 04 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Karlsruher SC attack 1.170 / def 1.229 | FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.746 / def 1.267 | league avg home 1.130 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: Karlsruher SC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Karlsruher SC xG
Expected Goals
1.25
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karlsruher SC vs FC Ingolstadt 04 kick off?
Karlsruher SC vs FC Ingolstadt 04 kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 22 April 2022 at BBBank Wildpark.
What was the final score in Karlsruher SC vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Karlsruher SC 2 - 2 FC Ingolstadt 04.
Where is Karlsruher SC vs FC Ingolstadt 04 being played?
The match is being played at BBBank Wildpark.
What competition is Karlsruher SC vs FC Ingolstadt 04 part of?
Karlsruher SC vs FC Ingolstadt 04 is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Karlsruher SC vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Our statistical model gives Karlsruher SC a 45% chance of winning, FC Ingolstadt 04 a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Karlsruher SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karlsruher SC vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Karlsruher SC and FC Ingolstadt 04 will score (BTTS).
Will Karlsruher SC vs FC Ingolstadt 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karlsruher SC and FC Ingolstadt 04?
Record (1 meetings): Karlsruher SC 0W | Draws 1 | FC Ingolstadt 04 0W.
What form are Karlsruher SC and FC Ingolstadt 04 in?
Karlsruher SC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. FC Ingolstadt 04 (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Karlsruher SC's attack at 1.17x the league average against FC Ingolstadt 04's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Ingolstadt 04's attack versus Karlsruher SC's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Karlsruher SC Win
45%
2.24
29%
3.41
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Karlsruher SC xG
Total xG
2.93
1.25
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
13%
7.81
5%
20.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.2 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karlsruher SC vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Karlsruher SC and FC Ingolstadt 04 expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Karlsruher SC and 1.25 for FC Ingolstadt 04, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Karlsruher SC vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Karlsruher SC come into this having played 30 games, going 9W 12D 9L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-L.
On the other side, FC Ingolstadt 04 sit at 0.63 PPG from 30 outings (4W 7D 19L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five.
Karlsruher SC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of FC Ingolstadt 04 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Karlsruher SC's home form reads 5W 7D 3L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Ingolstadt 04 have taken 0.60 points per game from 15 outings (2W 3D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Karlsruher SC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Karlsruher SC are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; FC Ingolstadt 04 are on 0.87 scored and 1.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karlsruher SC have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karlsruher SC
Current Season
FC Ingolstadt 04
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karlsruher SC and FC Ingolstadt 04 in coming into this match?
Karlsruher SC have gone 9W 12D 9L in their last 30 games (1.30 PPG), while FC Ingolstadt 04 have gone 4W 7D 19L in their last 30 (0.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karlsruher SC at home or FC Ingolstadt 04 away?
Karlsruher SC's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karlsruher SC at home: 1.47 PPG; FC Ingolstadt 04 away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Karlsruher SC
2
Draws
0
FC Ingolstadt 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karlsruher SC and FC Ingolstadt 04?
From 2 meetings on record, Karlsruher SC have won 0, FC Ingolstadt 04 have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Karlsruher SC and FC Ingolstadt 04 last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2022, when Karlsruher SC 2-2 FC Ingolstadt 04.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Karlsruher SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
FC Ingolstadt 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karlsruher SC 73%, FC Ingolstadt 04 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Karlsruher SC and 60% for FC Ingolstadt 04. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Ingolstadt 04 in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karlsruher SC home games / FC Ingolstadt 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karlsruher SC play FC Ingolstadt 04?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Karlsruher SC's games and 47% of FC Ingolstadt 04's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Karlsruher SC vs FC Ingolstadt 04 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Karlsruher SC's matches and 60% of FC Ingolstadt 04's.
Do Karlsruher SC and FC Ingolstadt 04 tend to score early?
Karlsruher SC have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, FC Ingolstadt 04 in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Karlsruher SC and FC Ingolstadt 04 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karlsruher SC and FC Ingolstadt 04 finished level at 2-2 at BBBank Wildpark, Regular Season - 31, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karlsruher SC 1.68 xG and FC Ingolstadt 04 1.25 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karlsruher SC attack 1.17 / defence 1.23 against FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.75 / defence 1.27, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karlsruher SC 45% | Draw 29% | FC Ingolstadt 04 26%, with Karlsruher SC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karlsruher SC 73%, FC Ingolstadt 04 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karlsruher SC's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
FC Ingolstadt 04's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Karlsruher SC arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.63. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Ingolstadt 04 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.