SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-3 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SSV Jahn Regensburg at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Werder Bremen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SSV Jahn Regensburg host Werder Bremen at Jahnstadion Regensburg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 10 December 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SSV Jahn Regensburg — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SSV Jahn Regensburg at Jahnstadion Regensburg this season: 5W 2D 1L from 8 home games — 2.12 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.75 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 88% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.12 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — SSV Jahn Regensburg are significantly better at Jahnstadion Regensburg than their overall form suggests.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Werder Bremen have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Werder Bremen's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (SSV Jahn Regensburg) versus 1.20 (Werder Bremen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
SSV Jahn Regensburg trading profile (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Werder Bremen trading profile (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Jahn Regensburg 62% versus Werder Bremen 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SSV Jahn Regensburg 75% | Werder Bremen 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.27 xG and Werder Bremen 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.358 / defence 1.368 | Werder Bremen attack 0.850 / defence 1.315. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.280. SSV Jahn Regensburg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.358 — their λ of 2.27 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Werder Bremen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.315 — this is suppressing SSV Jahn Regensburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 SSV Jahn Regensburg games / 16 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 53% | Draw 25% | Werder Bremen 23%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Werder Bremen 4.35. SSV Jahn Regensburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.76. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.76 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.27 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SSV Jahn Regensburg as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SSV Jahn Regensburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates corroborate: SSV Jahn Regensburg 88% | Werder Bremen 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Werder Bremen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg • Kick-off: Friday 10 Dec 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 53% | Draw 25% | Werder Bremen 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 72% | xG SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.27 / Werder Bremen 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.358 / def 1.368 | Werder Bremen attack 0.850 / def 1.315 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: SSV Jahn Regensburg (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Werder Bremen xG
72%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Werder Bremen kick off?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 10 December 2021 at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What was the final score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Werder Bremen?
SSV Jahn Regensburg 2 - 3 Werder Bremen.
Where is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What competition is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Werder Bremen part of?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 53% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SSV Jahn Regensburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both SSV Jahn Regensburg and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Werder Bremen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Werder Bremen in?
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Werder Bremen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack at 1.36x the league average against Werder Bremen's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 2.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Werder Bremen's attack versus SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.9%), 3-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SSV Jahn Regensburg Win
53%
1.89
25%
4.08
23%
4.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
3 – 1
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Total xG
3.76
1.49
Werder Bremen xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
4.44
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.39
28%
BTTS No
3.54
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
10%
9.69
Win to Nil
12%
8.38
2%
42.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1.49 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 3.76.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Werder Bremen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent record stands at 8W 4D 4L from 16 games, a 1.75 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Werder Bremen, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 5L across 16 games — 1.44 PPG, with D-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SSV Jahn Regensburg on 1.75 PPG, Werder Bremen on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SSV Jahn Regensburg have managed 5W 2D 1L from 8 games — 2.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Werder Bremen's away record stands at 3W 2D 3L across 8 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SSV Jahn Regensburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SSV Jahn Regensburg are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.56 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SSV Jahn Regensburg have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
Werder Bremen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 8W 4D 4L in their last 16 games (1.75 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 6W 5D 5L in their last 16 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home or Werder Bremen away?
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home: 2.12 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 1.38 PPG.
Have SSV Jahn Regensburg or Werder Bremen been keeping clean sheets recently?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Werder Bremen in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Werder Bremen runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SSV Jahn Regensburg
0
Draws
2
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Werder Bremen?
From 2 meetings on record, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 0, Werder Bremen have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SSV Jahn Regensburg and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2022, when Werder Bremen 2-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Who has won more matches between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Werder Bremen?
Werder Bremen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SSV Jahn Regensburg at 88%, Werder Bremen at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 88% for Werder Bremen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 88% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Werder Bremen in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Jahn Regensburg home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Jahn Regensburg play Werder Bremen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's games and 50% of Werder Bremen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's matches and 88% of Werder Bremen's.
Do SSV Jahn Regensburg and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Werder Bremen defy the odds to beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-3 at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 17, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.27 xG and Werder Bremen 1.49 xG, a combined 3.76. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Werder Bremen outscored their 1.49 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.36 / defence 1.37 against Werder Bremen attack 0.85 / defence 1.31, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 53% | Draw 25% | Werder Bremen 23%, with SSV Jahn Regensburg to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Werder Bremen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 75%, Werder Bremen 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.75 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Werder Bremen win broke the near-deadlock. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.