SSV Jahn Regensburg 1-0 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SC Paderborn 07 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jahnstadion Regensburg plays host to SSV Jahn Regensburg versus SC Paderborn 07 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 18 March 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
SSV Jahn Regensburg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg have posted 2W 4D 4L at Jahnstadion Regensburg — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — SSV Jahn Regensburg are significantly better at Jahnstadion Regensburg than their overall form suggests.
SC Paderborn 07 (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
SC Paderborn 07 arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: SSV Jahn Regensburg 1W, SC Paderborn 07 1W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2022, ended 0–3 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
SSV Jahn Regensburg — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Jahn Regensburg 48% versus SC Paderborn 07 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Jahn Regensburg 52% | SC Paderborn 07 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.95 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.730 / defence 1.165 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.972 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.262. SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack strength of 0.730 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 58 SSV Jahn Regensburg games / 58 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 25% | Draw 27% | SC Paderborn 07 48%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | SC Paderborn 07 2.08. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Paderborn 07 at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: SSV Jahn Regensburg 50% | SC Paderborn 07 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Mar 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 25% | Draw 27% | SC Paderborn 07 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.95 / SC Paderborn 07 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.730 / def 1.165 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.972 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Expected Goals
1.43
SC Paderborn 07 xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 18 March 2023 at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What was the final score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SC Paderborn 07?
SSV Jahn Regensburg 1 - 0 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What competition is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 25% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both SSV Jahn Regensburg and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (3 meetings): SSV Jahn Regensburg 1W | Draws 1 | SC Paderborn 07 1W.
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and SC Paderborn 07 in?
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack at 0.73x the league average against SC Paderborn 07's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SC Paderborn 07's attack (0.97x) against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
25%
4.00
27%
3.73
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Total xG
2.38
1.43
SC Paderborn 07 xG
4.00
25%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
6%
16.71
19%
5.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 13.3 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are SSV Jahn Regensburg and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1.43 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SSV Jahn Regensburg come into this having played 58 games, going 16W 15D 27L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.57 PPG from 58 outings (25W 16D 17L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Paderborn 07 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of SSV Jahn Regensburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home form reads 9W 9D 11L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Paderborn 07 have taken 1.66 points per game from 29 outings (13W 9D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SSV Jahn Regensburg are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.78 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 58 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 16W 15D 27L in their last 58 games (1.09 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 25W 16D 17L in their last 58 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home: 1.24 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.66 PPG.
Have SSV Jahn Regensburg or SC Paderborn 07 been keeping clean sheets recently?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, SC Paderborn 07 in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Paderborn 07 won 3-0 on 10 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SC Paderborn 07 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
SSV Jahn Regensburg
2
Draws
2
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and SC Paderborn 07?
From 6 meetings on record, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 2, SC Paderborn 07 have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SSV Jahn Regensburg and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when SSV Jahn Regensburg 0-0 SC Paderborn 07.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SSV Jahn Regensburg 59%, SC Paderborn 07 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (SSV Jahn Regensburg) and 59% (SC Paderborn 07). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Paderborn 07 in 34%; SSV Jahn Regensburg have failed to score in 28% of games; SC Paderborn 07 in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Jahn Regensburg home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Jahn Regensburg play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's games and 52% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's matches and 59% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do SSV Jahn Regensburg and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SSV Jahn Regensburg defy the odds to beat SC Paderborn 07 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SSV Jahn Regensburg beat SC Paderborn 07 1-0 at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 25, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.95 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.43 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SC Paderborn 07 landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.73 / defence 1.17 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.97 / defence 0.88, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 25% | Draw 27% | SC Paderborn 07 48%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a SSV Jahn Regensburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 52%, SC Paderborn 07 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.09. Form was overturned, with SSV Jahn Regensburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.